MLS · Sun · 21:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Market prices FC Cincinnati as strong favourites, with 1.94 odds implying roughly 51.5 percent win probability
Columbus Crew SC sit at 3.6 (about 27.8 percent implied), well behind the hosts in market terms
The draw at 4.22 shows a value edge of 7.86 percent, with fair probability (26 percent) exceeding the market-implied 23.7 percent
The model's top recommendation, Under 3.5 goals at 1.89, carries 51 percent confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -3.06 percent, suggesting limited rather than strong value
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.42 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 12.11 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | 15.27 |
| 3-1 | 6.2% | 16.13 |
| 2-0 | 5.5% | 18.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.12 and 1.58. These six scorelines cover 42% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from FC Cincinnati's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FC | X | 2 · CCS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 4.22 | 3.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.97 | 4.10 | 3.45 |
| GTbets | 1.93 | 4.07 | 3.49 |
| Coolbet | 1.90 | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.92 | 3.95 | 3.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.92 | 3.95 | 3.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
FC Cincinnati host Columbus Crew SC in an MLS fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.94 on Cincinnati translate to an implied win probability of roughly 51.5 percent, making them the clear favourite over Columbus Crew SC at 3.6 (about 27.8 percent) and the draw at 4.22 (about 23.7 percent). Those numbers suggest bookmakers see this as a fairly one-sided contest on paper, though MLS matches often carry more variance than the raw percentages imply. Our model's recommended angle steps away from the match-result market entirely, pointing to Under 3.5 goals at 1.89, a bet tied to overall match tempo rather than picking a winner. Elsewhere, the data flags the draw as a possible value spot, with the model's fair probability of 26 percent sitting above the market-implied 23.7 percent, an edge worth noting for bettors who like to shop lines.
Verdict: The model leans toward Under 3.5 goals at 1.89, backed by 51 percent implied confidence, though its slightly negative edge (-3.06 percent) means this isn't flagged as a clear value play. The draw's positive edge is notable, but with Cincinnati priced as clear favourites, any bet here still carries real risk. Stake modestly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
FC Cincinnati are priced as clear favourites at 1.94, implying roughly a 51.5 percent chance of victory according to the best available odds.
The best available price on the draw is 4.22, which implies a probability of about 23.7 percent, though the model's fair probability estimate is slightly higher at 26 percent.
The data shows a positive 7.86 percent value edge on the draw at 4.22, while the model's recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.89 has a modest negative edge of -3.06 percent, meaning value is limited rather than strongly favourable across the board.
FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew SC takes place Sun · 21:00 in the MLS.
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