Premier League ยท Sun ยท 13:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Manchester United are the marginal favourites at 2.59 (about 39% implied), just ahead of Everton at 2.9 (about 34%).
The narrow price gap points to a tightly rated match rather than a comfortable favourite.
Our model flags Everton to win at 2.9 as value, with a small edge of roughly 3.59% over a 36% implied confidence.
The draw is priced at 3.52 and also shows a modest edge of about 4.79% against a fair probability estimate of 30%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.56 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.95 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 16.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.44. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Everton's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท EVE | X | 2 ยท MU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.19 | 3.48 | 2.41 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.14 | 3.42 | 2.38 |
| Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.34 | 2.33 |
| Betfair | 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
| Betsson | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Premier League meeting between Everton and Manchester United sees the market lean slightly towards the visitors. Manchester United are priced at 2.59, translating to an implied probability of roughly 39%, while Everton sit at 2.9, or about 34% in the market's eyes. That is a narrow gap, marking this out as a closely rated contest rather than a clear mismatch. The draw is available at 3.52, implying around 28%. Our model, however, sees value on the home side: Everton to win at 2.9 carries a small edge of about 3.59% against the market-implied confidence of 36%. In other words, our numbers suggest Everton's true chances may be a touch better than the odds indicate. With the price gap so slim, this is a fixture where the underdog tag on Everton looks softer than the raw odds first suggest, making the home value pick the focus here.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Everton to win at 2.9, backed by a modest 3.59% value edge. With the market pricing this as a close call, it remains a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong lean. Treat the small edge accordingly and stake within your own limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 51% confidence rating.
Manchester United are the slight favourites at 2.59, implying about a 39% chance, just ahead of Everton at 2.9 (around 34%). The gap is narrow, so the market rates it a close contest.
The draw is priced at 3.52 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 28% chance. Our model estimates a fair probability nearer 30%, suggesting a small value edge of about 4.79%.
Our model identifies Everton to win at 2.9 as the recommended value pick, with an edge of around 3.59%. The draw at 3.52 also shows a modest edge, but both are small margins in a closely priced game.
Everton vs Manchester United takes place Sun ยท 13:00 in the Premier League.
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