Liga Profesional · Sun · 21:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Match-result odds are tightly bunched: Aldosivi 2.81, Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 2.80, draw 2.94, implying near-equal probabilities across all three outcomes.
The draw at 2.94 is priced only marginally higher than either team, reinforcing the market's view of this as a genuinely open contest.
No outright value picks against market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.57 has a 61% implied confidence level but a negative value edge of -4.78%, meaning it leans on probability rather than a clear pricing advantage.
Neither team is installed as a clear market favourite, with less than 0.14 separating the best odds across all three result outcomes.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 20.8% | 4.81 |
| 0-1 | 16.4% | 6.09 |
| 1-0 | 16.2% | 6.16 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.80 |
| 0-2 | 6.5% | 15.41 |
| 2-0 | 6.3% | 15.77 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.78 and 0.79. These six scorelines cover 79% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EDR | X | 2 · AMD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.71 | 2.95 | 2.94 |
| Betfair | 2.76 | 2.86 | 2.96 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.70 | 2.93 | 2.95 |
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 2.92 | 2.94 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.55 | 2.90 | 3.05 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.70 | 2.85 | 2.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto host Aldosivi Mar del Plata in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market sees almost nothing between the two sides. The best available prices put Aldosivi at 2.81, the hosts at 2.8, and the draw at 2.94, which translates to implied probabilities of roughly 35-36% for each team and about 34% for a stalemate. That is about as close to a three-way coin toss as the match-result market gets, suggesting bookmakers do not favour either club with any real conviction. Rather than lean on that tight and largely uninformative result market, our model points toward the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.57, which carries a market-implied confidence of 61%. The edge on this selection is actually slightly negative at -4.78%, so it is presented as a reasoned angle rather than a standout value play, and bettors should weigh it alongside their own bankroll approach.
Verdict: With the result market essentially a toss-up, the model's Over 1.5 goals pick at 1.57 offers a reasonably high implied confidence of 61%, though its slightly negative value edge means it is not a clear-cut market inefficiency. Treat it as a measured, moderate-risk option rather than a strong edge play, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.59, with a 61% confidence rating.
Neither team is a clear favourite. Aldosivi is priced at 2.81 and Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at 2.80, implying almost identical probabilities of around 35-36% each.
The draw is available at 2.94, which implies a probability of roughly 34%, only slightly behind either team's win chance.
No outright value picks against market consensus reached the site's threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.57 has 61% implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -4.78%, so it should be seen as a reasoned pick rather than a proven market edge.
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto vs Aldosivi Mar del Plata takes place Sun · 21:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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