Liga Profesional · Tue · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Riestra are market favourites at 2.44, implying close to a 41% win chance, the shortest price of the three outcomes.
The draw at 2.94 implies roughly 34% probability, keeping it a live outcome rather than an afterthought.
Union Santa Fe's 3.31 price corresponds to a fair probability estimate of 32%, producing a 6.08% edge versus the market consensus.
The Over 1.5 goals line at 1.61 carries 59% model confidence despite a slightly negative value edge of -5.12%, meaning the price itself is not generous.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.3% | 6.54 |
| 0-0 | 15.2% | 6.57 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.45 |
| 0-1 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 13.00 |
| 2-1 | 6.8% | 14.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.00 and 0.88. These six scorelines cover 72% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DR | X | 2 · USF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.32 | 2.91 | 3.65 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.31 | 2.92 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 2.92 | 3.51 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.30 | 2.86 | 3.44 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.24 | 2.85 | 3.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Deportivo Riestra host Union Santa Fe in a Liga Profesional clash where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Riestra's best price of 2.44 implies a win probability of roughly 41%, while Union Santa Fe at 3.31 sits closer to 30%. The draw, priced at 2.94, carries an implied chance of around 34%, keeping this fixture tightly bunched across all three outcomes. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, a line the model assigns about 59% confidence to, suggesting bookmakers are pricing in a reasonably open contest rather than a cagey low-scoring affair. Union Santa Fe also stands out as a value selection, with their 3.31 price offering an edge over the model's fair probability estimate. As always, these are market-derived readings rather than certainties, and bettors should treat them as one input alongside their own research.
Verdict: Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 reflects a reasonably confident but not undervalued pick, so it suits bettors comfortable with modest odds for a higher-probability outcome. The Union Santa Fe price looks the more interesting value angle given the gap between its market odds and fair probability, though it remains the underdog outcome and carries corresponding risk.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 59% confidence rating.
Deportivo Riestra are favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.44, which implies roughly a 41% chance of victory, the shortest of the three match-result prices.
The draw is available at 2.94, implying an approximate 34% probability, making it a realistic outcome alongside the two team-win markets.
The data suggests some value, as Union Santa Fe's best price of 3.31 corresponds to a fair probability estimate of 32%, giving an edge of about 6.08% versus the market consensus, though they remain outsiders.
Deportivo Riestra vs Union Santa Fe takes place Tue · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
English