MLS · Thu · 01:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Colorado Rapids are favourites at 2.05, implying roughly a 49% win probability against Minnesota United's 27.93%.
The draw is priced at 3.78, translating to about 26.46% implied probability, keeping the match-result market fairly competitive despite Colorado's edge.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 carries a model confidence of 59% but shows a negative value edge of -3.06%, indicating no clear market inefficiency.
No value picks were flagged above the site's threshold, suggesting the match-result odds broadly reflect the model's own probability assessment.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.6% | 7.94 |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | 9.89 |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | 10.63 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.88 |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | 12.77 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CR | X | 2 · MUF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.16 | 3.80 | 3.35 |
| Matchbook | 2.16 | 3.80 | 3.35 |
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.73 | 3.26 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.16 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| GTbets | 2.16 | 3.72 | 3.24 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.14 | 3.68 | 3.22 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Colorado Rapids host Minnesota United FC in an MLS clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.05 for Colorado imply a win probability of roughly 49%, while Minnesota United's 3.58 price points to about 28%, and the draw at 3.78 sits near 26%. That gap suggests bookmakers see Colorado as moderate favourites without a dominant edge, leaving the away win and draw as live possibilities rather than afterthoughts. Away from the match-result market, the recommended angle here is a goals-based bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.65, which the model prices with roughly 59% confidence. It's worth noting this selection carries a slightly negative value edge of about -3%, meaning the market price is marginally tighter than the model's own estimate, so it should be treated as a measured option rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.65 reflects a reasonably confident model read (59%) but comes with a small negative edge versus the market price, so it is not a clear-cut value bet. Bettors considering it should treat it as a moderate-risk option and size stakes accordingly within a sensible bankroll plan.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.40, with a 41% confidence rating.
Colorado Rapids are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.05, which implies roughly a 49% chance of winning compared with Minnesota United's 28% at 3.58.
The draw is available at 3.78, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 26.46%, keeping it a realistic outcome given the odds spread.
The site's model does not flag any match-result value picks above its threshold for this fixture. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 has a slightly negative value edge of -3.06%, so it should be approached as a moderate option rather than a strong value bet.
Colorado Rapids vs Minnesota United FC takes place Thu · 01:30 in the MLS.
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