MLS · Thu · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Philadelphia Union are priced shorter (2.41) than Chicago Fire (2.68), implying a slight edge of about 4 percentage points in the market's win probability for the visitors.
The draw at 4.11 implies roughly a 24.3% chance, the least favoured outcome of the three but still a meaningful share of the implied probability pie.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.89 carries a model confidence of 51%, close to but slightly below the bookmaker's implied 52.9%, producing a small negative value edge of -3.06%.
No side of the 1X2 market currently clears our value threshold, meaning neither Chicago, Philadelphia, nor the draw stands out as mispriced according to our model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.4% | 10.62 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.94 |
| 1-2 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 1-0 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
| 2-0 | 6.2% | 16.08 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.94 and 1.47. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CF | X | 2 · PU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.54 | 4.00 | 2.68 |
| Betfair | 2.54 | 3.95 | 2.68 |
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.86 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.48 | 3.95 | 2.63 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.64 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.52 | 3.77 | 2.58 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Philadelphia Union head into this MLS clash with Chicago Fire as the marginal market favourites, priced at 2.41 with 1xBet compared to 2.68 for the hosts, while the draw sits out at 4.11. Converting those prices into probability terms, the market sees Philadelphia's chances at roughly 41.5%, Chicago's at about 37.3%, and a draw at close to 24.3% once the bookmaker margin is accounted for. That gap is modest, suggesting a fairly even contest on paper rather than a lopsided mismatch. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.89 as the recommended angle for this Chicago Fire versus Philadelphia Union fixture. With no outright value picks clearing our threshold on the 1X2 side, this game looks more interesting through the goals market than the match-winner odds.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals pick at 1.89 is a reasonably balanced, low-goals lean rather than a standout value play, since its implied edge is actually slightly negative against the model's own confidence. It fits bettors comfortable with a modest-risk, measured-stakes approach rather than those chasing a clear mispricing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 23:30 | CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC | 2.38 | 3.90 | 3.05 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | D.C. United v New York Red Bulls | 1.99 | 4.10 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v New York City FC | 1.56 | 5.20 | 6.00 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution | 1.95 | 4.30 | 3.75 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Toronto FC v Orlando City SC | 2.25 | 4.10 | 3.20 |
| 14 Oct 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v Charlotte FC | 2.12 | 4.10 | 3.48 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | St. Louis City SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| 15 Oct 00:30 | FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders FC | 1.99 | 4.30 | 3.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.82, with a 54% confidence rating.
Philadelphia Union are the marginal favourites at 2.41 with 1xBet, compared to 2.68 for Chicago Fire, implying win probabilities of roughly 41.5% and 37.3% respectively.
The draw is priced at 4.11 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 24.3% chance based on the market odds.
No outright value picks on the match-result market cleared our threshold for this fixture; the recommended angle instead is Under 3.5 goals at 1.89, though its value edge is slightly negative at -3.06%.
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union takes place Thu · 00:30 in the MLS.
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