Liga Profesional · Sat · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Tigre BA carry the shortest price at 2.2, giving them the highest market-implied win probability of the three outcomes at around 45%.
The draw is priced at 2.75 (about 36% implied), keeping it a live outcome rather than a long shot.
Tucuman's 3.22 price implies roughly 31%, making them outsiders but not negligible in the market's view.
The model's confidence in the Tigre win sits at 38%, below the market's implied 45%, producing a -17.03% value edge and no picks clearing the value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 19.5% | 5.13 |
| 0-0 | 17.8% | 5.60 |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.13 |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | 8.88 |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | 9.39 |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.09 and 0.63. These six scorelines cover 78% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CTB | X | 2 · AT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| Betsson | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.35 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.30 | 2.94 | 3.34 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.23 | 2.78 | 3.12 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.20 | 2.80 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
CA Tigre BA host Atlético Tucuman in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Tigre's best price of 2.2 translates to an implied probability of roughly 45%, the draw at 2.75 implies about 36%, and Tucuman's 3.22 price implies close to 31%. Those numbers show a fairly tight three-way spread, typical of a match where no outcome is considered close to certain. Our model's recommended angle is CA Tigre BA to win at 2.2, though it flags the pick with a market-implied confidence of 38% and a negative value edge of -17.03%, meaning the model's own probability estimate sits below what the market is pricing in for the home side.
Verdict: The recommended bet is CA Tigre BA to win at 2.2, built on their status as market favourites in a closely priced three-way market. However, the model's own confidence trails the implied probability, resulting in a negative value edge, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong-value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 61% confidence rating.
CA Tigre BA are priced as favourites at 2.2, implying a win probability of around 45%, the highest of the three possible outcomes.
The draw is available at 2.75, which implies roughly a 36% probability, keeping it a realistic outcome given the tight odds spread.
Not currently; the model's confidence of 38% is lower than the market-implied probability of about 45%, resulting in a negative value edge of -17.03%, so no bet in this match clears the value threshold.
CA Tigre BA vs Atlético Tucuman takes place Sat · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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