Premier League ยท Sat ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Brighton are firm favourites at 1.81, about a 55% implied chance, with Leeds a long way back at 4.87 and the draw at 3.9.
The model's headline pick is Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, showing a value edge of roughly 3.93% and balanced 50% implied confidence.
Leeds carry the biggest flagged value on the winner market, with a fair probability of 23% against a 4.87 price, an edge of about 10.84%.
The draw also screens as slightly underpriced, with a fair probability near 27% versus the 3.9 on offer, an edge around 5.79%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 8.20 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.59 |
| 0-0 | 7.8% | 12.90 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.12 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.57 and 0.98. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Brighton and Hove Albion's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BAH | X | 2 ยท LU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.78 | 4.57 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85 | 3.72 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.82 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.67 | 4.24 |
| Betsson | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Brighton and Hove Albion host Leeds United in this Premier League fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side is preferred. Brighton are priced at 1.81 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 55%, marking them as clear home favourites. Leeds are the outsiders at 4.87, implying around 21% before the margin, while the draw sits at 3.9, close to a 26% chance. Those numbers point to a contest the bookmakers expect Brighton to control without treating Leeds as no-hopers. Our model, however, looks past the winner and towards the goals market. It recommends Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, with market-implied confidence around 50% and a value edge of just under 4%. That angle sidesteps the question of who wins and instead backs a tighter, lower-scoring afternoon at the Amex. Below we break down where the value sits according to the prices.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, a near coin-flip proposition with a modest value edge. It avoids the outright winner question but still carries genuine risk, as goals-line bets can swing on a single moment. Stake sensibly and treat the edge as marginal rather than decisive.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 50% confidence rating.
Brighton and Hove Albion are the favourites at 1.81 with 1xBet, an implied probability of roughly 55%. Leeds United are the outsiders at 4.87.
The draw is available at 3.9 with 1xBet, implying about a 26% chance. Our model rates its fair probability slightly higher at 27%, a small value edge of around 5.79%.
The model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 as its recommended bet, with an edge near 3.93%. Leeds at 4.87 shows the largest flagged edge at about 10.84%, though as clear underdogs the risk is correspondingly high.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Leeds United takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Premier League.
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