Premier League ยท Sat ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The price gap is significant: Brentford at 1.7 (about 59% implied) versus Sunderland at 5.38 (about 19%), showing a strongly one-sided market.
Our recommended pick is Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, with a 48% implied confidence and a small 3.87% value edge.
The value model flags Sunderland as the biggest edge at 19.3% (fair probability 22% against a 5.38 price), though that reflects an underdog with real downside risk.
The draw is priced at 4.17 (roughly 24% implied) and shows an 8.21% edge versus a 26% fair probability, a secondary value angle worth noting.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 8.23 |
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.43 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.50 |
| 0-0 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.60 and 0.98. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Brentford's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BRE | X | 2 ยท SUN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.92 | 5.13 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.74 | 3.86 | 5.05 |
| Betfair | 1.72 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Betsson | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.72 | 3.72 | 4.91 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Brentford host Sunderland in this Premier League fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Brentford are priced at 1.7 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 59%, marking them as clear home favourites. Sunderland, by contrast, are out at 5.38, implying about a 19% chance, while the draw sits at 4.17, or around 24% in probability terms. That spread reflects a match the bookmakers expect the hosts to control. Our model, however, points away from the result market and toward the goals line: Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 carries a market-implied confidence of around 48% and a modest value edge of 3.87%. The reasoning is that even with a strong favourite, a cagey, lower-scoring contest is plausible enough to make the price attractive. As always, treat this as one angle rather than a certainty.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, backed by a slim 3.87% edge and a near coin-flip 48% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk bet rather than a strong lean. The Sunderland and draw value edges exist but carry higher variance. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.97, with a 50% confidence rating.
Brentford are the clear favourites at 1.7, which implies roughly a 59% chance. Sunderland are the outsiders at 5.38, around 19% implied.
The draw is available at 4.17 with 1xBet, which implies about a 24% probability. The model assigns it a fair probability of 26%, giving an 8.21% value edge.
The model identifies Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 as its recommended pick with a 3.87% edge. On the result market, Sunderland shows the largest edge at 19.3% and the draw 8.21%, though both carry more risk as against a strong favourite.
Brentford vs Sunderland takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Premier League.
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