Liga Profesional · Sat · 17:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Lanus are priced as favourites at 2.27, implying close to a 44% win probability, the highest of the three outcomes.
Banfield's best odds of 3.08 imply roughly 32% win probability, making them outsiders in this matchup.
The draw at 2.75 carries an implied probability of about 36%, sitting between the two sides' chances.
The model's recommended Lanus bet shows a negative value edge of -16.17%, meaning the model's own confidence (37%) is lower than what the market price implies, so no genuine edge was identified here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.42 |
| 0-1 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.03 |
| 0-0 | 11.8% | 8.45 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.72 |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | 14.10 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.05 and 1.08. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAN | X | 2 · LAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.15 | 2.98 | 2.50 |
| Betsson | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.05 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.08 | 2.75 | 2.27 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.95 | 2.75 | 2.25 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Banfield host Lanus in Liga Profesional football, and the betting market leans toward the visitors. Best prices have Lanus at 2.27 with Betclic (FR), translating to an implied win probability of roughly 44%, making them the clearest favourite of the three outcomes. Banfield, at 3.08 with the same bookmaker, are priced around 32% to win, while the draw sits at 2.75 with Winamax (DE), implying about 36%. Our model's recommended selection is Lanus to win at 2.27, though its own confidence reading of 37% sits below the market-implied 44%, producing a negative value edge of -16.17%. In practical terms, this means the pick aligns with the market favourite but does not represent a statistically attractive value opportunity by the model's own measure, and no separate value picks cleared the threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: Lanus are the market's pick to beat Banfield, with odds implying a near 44% chance of victory, but the model's confidence sits below that figure, producing a negative edge. This is a favourite-backing selection rather than a value bet, and bettors should treat it with appropriate caution and modest stake sizing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 61% confidence rating.
Lanus are the favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.27 with Betclic (FR), which implies close to a 44% chance of winning, the highest among the three possible outcomes.
The best available draw price is 2.75 with Winamax (DE), which implies an approximate 36% probability of the match ending level.
Not based on the model's calculations. While Lanus is the recommended pick at 2.27, the model's confidence of 37% is lower than the market-implied 44%, resulting in a negative value edge of -16.17%, and no separate value picks met the threshold for this fixture.
Banfield vs Lanus takes place Sat · 17:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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