Premier League ยท Mon ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Arsenal are favourites at 1.84, an implied probability near 54%, while Aston Villa at 4.7 sit around 21%.
The draw is priced at 3.98, roughly a 25% implied chance, underlining a scenario where a stalemate is plausible.
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.12 shows a value edge of 3.77% with about 49% model confidence.
Aston Villa is flagged as a value pick at 4.7 versus a fair probability of 28%, an edge of 33.9% despite their underdog status.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 12.0% | 8.35 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.47 |
| 0-2 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 13.50 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.98 and 1.62. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Aston Villa's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AV | X | 2 ยท ARS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.57 |
| 1xBet | 6.50 | 4.41 | 1.58 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.75 | 4.60 | 1.51 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.75 | 4.60 | 1.51 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.40 | 4.33 | 1.55 |
| Pinnacle | 6.21 | 4.35 | 1.53 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Arsenal travel to Aston Villa in this Premier League fixture as clear market favourites, priced at 1.84 by 1xBet. That figure implies roughly a 54% chance of a Gunners win before accounting for the bookmaker margin. Aston Villa are firmly the outsiders at 4.7 with Betsson, implying around 21% in raw terms, while the draw sits at 3.98, translating to close to 25%. The gap between the two sides is significant but not overwhelming, leaving room for a competitive contest. Our model leans away from a straightforward result pick and towards the goals market: Under 2.5 goals is rated at 2.12 (1xBet), carrying market-implied confidence of about 49% and a modest value edge of 3.77%. That angle reflects an expectation of a controlled, lower-scoring encounter rather than a backing of either team to win outright in a match the odds frame as tight-ish at the top.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, supported by a small 3.77% edge and roughly even model confidence. It is a reasonable value angle rather than a strong lean, so treat it as a moderate-risk selection and stake responsibly within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:00 | Fulham v Chelsea | 4.20 | 3.85 | 1.98 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Crystal Palace v Manchester City | 5.60 | 4.32 | 1.68 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Liverpool v Nottingham Forest | 1.54 | 4.90 | 7.00 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Coventry City v Hull City | 1.94 | 3.80 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Bournemouth v Everton | 2.14 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United | 2.32 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Leeds United v Brentford | 2.63 | 3.52 | 2.90 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Chelsea v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.05 | 3.95 | 3.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton Hove | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 | Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 4 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Ipswich Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Leeds United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Man United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Aston Villa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 49% confidence rating.
Arsenal are the favourites at 1.84 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 54%. Aston Villa are the outsiders at 4.7.
The draw is priced at 3.98 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 25% chance before the bookmaker margin.
Our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with a 3.77% edge as the recommended bet. Aston Villa at 4.7 is also flagged as a value pick with a fair probability of 28%, though they remain the underdogs.
Aston Villa vs Arsenal takes place Mon ยท 19:00 in the Premier League.
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