Greek Super League · Sun · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Aris Thessaloniki are priced at 1.83, implying roughly a 55% chance of victory according to the market.
Atromitos Athens at 4.4 are the clear underdogs, with an implied win probability of about 23%.
The draw is priced at 3.48, implying close to 29%, keeping it as a live secondary outcome behind an Aris win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 carries a 43% modelled confidence and a negative value edge of -5.39%, so it is not flagged as a strong value play by the model's own measure.
No value picks against market consensus reached the site's threshold for this match.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.88 |
| 1-0 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.05 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 11.34 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.40 and 1.03. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AT | X | 2 · AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.50 | 4.32 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.45 |
| Betsson | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.45 |
| 888sport | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.72 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Aris Thessaloniki host Atromitos Athens in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best prices put Aris at 1.83, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 55%, making them clear favourites on home soil. Atromitos, priced at 4.4, are seen as outsiders with an implied chance of around 23%, while the draw at 3.48 sits at about 29%. Away from the straight match-result market, the site's model points toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.2 as its recommended angle, though it carries a modelled confidence of 43% and a negative value edge of -5.39%, meaning it does not clear the threshold normally used to flag a market mispricing. No separate value picks against market consensus met the bar for this fixture, so this preview leans on the raw odds picture rather than any standout edge.
Verdict: The market strongly favours Aris Thessaloniki at home, with the draw and an Atromitos win seen as less likely outcomes. The model's Over 2.5 goals suggestion at 2.2 is offered as the closest lean available, but its negative value edge and moderate 43% confidence mean this should be treated as a speculative angle rather than a confident selection. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Atromitos Athens v AEK Athens | 7.50 | 3.90 | 1.44 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kalamata FC v OFI Crete | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v Olympiakos Piraeus | 10.00 | 5.25 | 1.34 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis | 1.26 | 6.80 | 14.10 |
| 18 Oct 17:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Aris Thessaloniki | 3.10 | 3.43 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Iraklis FC | 1.27 | 6.20 | 12.50 |
| 24 Oct 16:00 | Iraklis FC v AE Kifisia FC | 2.54 | 3.12 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.72, with a 55% confidence rating.
Aris Thessaloniki are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.83, which implies roughly a 55% chance of winning. Atromitos at 4.4 are priced as the underdogs.
The draw is available at 3.48, which implies an approximate 29% probability, making it a live but secondary outcome behind a home win.
No value picks against market consensus met the site's threshold for this fixture. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.2 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.39%, so it is offered as a lean rather than a confirmed value play.
Aris Thessaloniki vs Atromitos Athens takes place Sun · 17:30 in the Greek Super League.
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