Greek Super League · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
PAOK's 1.26 price implies roughly a 79% win probability, reflecting a strong market-side favourite status.
Iraklis are priced at 12.0, implying just over 8% chance of an away win according to the market.
The draw at 5.6 carries an implied probability of about 18%, offering some hedge value against a straightforward home win.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 shows a -5.35% value edge, meaning the model's 57% confidence sits below the 60.6% implied break-even point.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PT | X | 2 · IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 5.30 | 11.30 |
| Betsson | 1.23 | 5.60 | 11.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.23 | 5.60 | 10.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.22 | 5.40 | 11.00 |
| 888sport | 1.25 | 4.80 | 11.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 4.80 | 11.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
PAOK Thessaloniki host Iraklis FC in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best odds of 1.26 on PAOK imply a win probability of roughly 79%, making the home side heavy favourites, while Iraklis at 12.0 are priced at just under 8.3% by comparison. The draw sits at 5.6, translating to an implied chance of about 18%, a modest cushion for anyone expecting a tighter contest than the headline price suggests. Rather than backing the match result outright, our model points toward the Over 2.5 goals market at 1.65, implying a 60.6% break-even threshold against a model confidence of 57%. That gap produces a negative value edge of -5.35%, meaning the numbers do not clearly favour this angle, so it should be treated as a measured, not compelling, selection.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.65 is the model's top suggestion, but its negative value edge means the market price does not clearly favour it. Given PAOK's heavy favourite status, backing goals rather than the outright result offers an alternative angle, though bettors should treat this as a moderate-risk, data-driven option rather than a strong edge play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 57% confidence rating.
PAOK Thessaloniki are strong favourites according to the odds, with a best price of 1.26 implying close to a 79% win probability, compared to Iraklis' 12.0 price implying around 8%.
The best available draw price is 5.6, which implies roughly an 18% probability of the match ending level.
No standout value picks were found against market consensus for this fixture. The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.65 actually shows a -5.35% value edge, so it is not a clear value play based on the current data.
PAOK Thessaloniki vs Iraklis FC takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Greek Super League.
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