Greek Super League · Sun · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Aris Thessaloniki carry the shortest odds at 2.52, giving them the highest implied win probability of the three outcomes at roughly 39.7 percent.
AE Kifisia FC are priced at 2.96 (about 33.8 percent implied), keeping them within reach of the favourites tag rather than clear outsiders.
The draw at 3.15 implies around 31.75 percent, showing the bookmakers rate a stalemate as a genuine possibility in this fixture.
The Over 2.5 goals selection at 2.3 carries a model confidence of 41 percent against a -4.95 percent value edge, indicating the price is close to fair rather than offering a clear market edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.52 |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | 7.96 |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 8.94 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.46 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 12.66 |
| 0-2 | 7.5% | 13.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.06 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AKF | X | 2 · AT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.93 | 3.08 | 2.48 |
| Betsson | 2.82 | 3.15 | 2.45 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.82 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
| 888sport | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.41 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Aris Thessaloniki head into this Greek Super League away trip as the market's clear pick against AE Kifisia FC, with best odds of 2.52 implying a win probability of roughly 39.7 percent. Kifisia, priced at 2.96, sit close behind at an implied 33.8 percent, while the draw at 3.15 (31.75 percent) keeps the outcome market tightly bunched overall. That spread suggests bookmakers see this as a competitive, three-way open fixture rather than a lopsided mismatch. Away from the match-result market, our model points to the goals total, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.3, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 43 percent. The model's own confidence sits at 41 percent, and the calculated value edge is a modest -4.95 percent, meaning the price does not clearly outstrip the model's assessment of goal-scoring likelihood in this Kifisia versus Aris meeting.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.3 reflects a competitive, closely priced match rather than a standout opportunity, with a slightly negative value edge of -4.95 percent. It is a reasonable consideration for goals markets but not a high-confidence value play, so modest staking and normal bankroll discipline are advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30, with a 41% confidence rating.
Aris Thessaloniki are the market favourites at odds of 2.52, implying a win probability of around 39.7 percent, slightly ahead of AE Kifisia FC at 2.96 (about 33.8 percent).
The best available draw odds are 3.15, which implies a probability of roughly 31.75 percent, keeping the three outcomes fairly close together.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified, and the model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.3 shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.95 percent, so any wager should be seen as speculative rather than a clear-cut edge.
AE Kifisia FC vs Aris Thessaloniki takes place Sun · 17:00 in the Greek Super League.
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