Greek Super League · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Panathinaikos are heavily favoured at 1.24, implying roughly an 80.6 percent chance of victory according to the market.
Asteras Tripolis are priced as significant outsiders at 12.4, implying only about an 8.1 percent win probability.
The draw at 5.4 implies around 18.5 percent, offering some hedge value relative to the extreme favourite pricing on Panathinaikos.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.68 carries a negative value edge of -5.12 percent, meaning the model's own confidence (56 percent) sits below the price's implied probability (about 59.5 percent).
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.0% | 6.65 |
| 2-0 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.14 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.79 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.69 and 0.73. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PAN | X | 2 · AT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.26 | 5.35 | 11.10 |
| Betsson | 1.24 | 5.40 | 11.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.24 | 5.40 | 10.50 |
| 888sport | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.23 | 5.40 | 9.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Panathinaikos host Asteras Tripolis in the Greek Super League as prohibitive favourites according to the betting market. Best available prices have Panathinaikos at 1.24, which implies a win probability of roughly 81 percent, while Asteras Tripolis sit out at 12.4 (about 8 percent implied) and the draw is priced at 5.4 (around 18.5 percent implied). Those figures point to a lopsided contest on paper, with the bookmakers seeing little room for an upset or a stalemate. Away from the match-result market, our model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, a price that implies a goal-scoring probability near 59.5 percent against the model's own 56 percent confidence reading, producing a modest negative value edge. No standout value picks were flagged against market consensus for this fixture, so the goals market remains the more actionable angle here for bettors weighing this Super League fixture.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 is a reasonable consideration given the lopsided match-result odds suggesting Panathinaikos should dominate, but the negative value edge indicates the price is not clearly favourable by the model's own measure. Treat it as a moderate-risk selection rather than a confident value play, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 56% confidence rating.
Panathinaikos are strong favourites, priced at 1.24, which implies roughly an 81 percent win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 5.4, implying an approximate 18.5 percent probability, well behind Panathinaikos but ahead of an Asteras Tripolis win in market terms.
No standout value picks were flagged against market consensus for the match-result market. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.68 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -5.12 percent, so it should be viewed as speculative rather than a clear value bet.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Greek Super League.
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