Liga MX · Sun · 01:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
América at 1.44 imply roughly a 69% win chance, dwarfing Puebla's 6.25 (about 16%).
The draw is priced at 4.25, around a 24% implied probability before margin adjustment.
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 carries about 44% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -7.53%.
No value picks cleared our threshold, indicating the odds broadly align with modelled expectations.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.4% | 7.49 |
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 8.20 |
| 3-0 | 9.8% | 10.26 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.73 |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.19 and 0.70. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AMÉ | X | 2 · PUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.35 | 5.25 | 8.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.34 | 5.35 | 8.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.29 | 8.55 |
| GTbets | 1.38 | 4.89 | 7.51 |
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.05 | 8.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.32 | 5.05 | 8.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
América head into this Liga MX clash with Puebla as clear favourites, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. At 1.44, América are priced at roughly a 69% implied chance of winning, while Puebla at 6.25 sit around 16% and the draw at 4.25 translates to about 24% (before margin). That is a wide gap that reflects the bookmakers' strong lean toward the home side rather than any suggestion of a close contest. Our model does not target the match result here; instead it flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, an implied probability of about 44%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is negative at -7.53%, so it is a modelled preference rather than a spot where the price outruns the true chance. With no value picks clearing our threshold, this is a fixture to approach selectively and with measured stakes.
Verdict: The model leans to Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, roughly a coin-flip at 44% implied confidence. With a negative value edge of -7.53%, it is a preference rather than a value spot, so treat it cautiously and stake within your limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Atlante FC v León | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v Cruz Azul | 3.80 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| 29 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Pumas | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Atlas v Querétaro | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.48 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Pachuca v Guadalajara | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 30 Aug 03:00 | Santos Laguna v Tigres | 4.48 | 4.03 | 1.75 |
| 31 Aug 00:00 | Toluca v FC Juárez | 1.28 | 6.22 | 10.50 |
| 31 Aug 02:00 | Monterrey v Atlético San Luis | 1.54 | 4.66 | 6.04 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.31, with a 41% confidence rating.
América are clear favourites at 1.44, implying about a 69% chance to win. Puebla are outsiders at 6.25, around 16%.
The draw is available at 4.25, which implies roughly a 24% probability before the bookmaker margin is taken into account.
No value picks cleared our threshold. Our model prefers Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, but that carries a negative value edge of -7.53%, so it is a modelled lean rather than a clear value bet.
América vs Puebla takes place Sun · 01:00 in the Liga MX.
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