Liga MX · Mon · 00:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Toluca are heavy favourites at 1.42, implying roughly a 70% chance, while FC Juárez at 6.0 sit near 17%.
The draw is priced at 4.6, about a 22% implied probability, underlining the market's confidence in a decisive result.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.1 carries around 44% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -7.6%.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for this fixture, so caution is warranted.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 9.45 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | 10.94 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
| 1-1 | 7.1% | 14.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.59 and 0.87. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TOL | X | 2 · FJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.28 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.26 | 6.22 | 9.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.25 | 5.85 | 9.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.26 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| Betsson | 1.26 | 5.25 | 10.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.24 | 5.85 | 9.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Toluca host FC Juárez in this Liga MX fixture as clear favourites, with the home win priced at 1.42 by Unibet (NL). That short price implies a market probability of around 70%, reflecting a strong expectation that Toluca take all three points on home turf. FC Juárez sit as the outsiders at 6.0, translating to roughly a 17% chance, while the draw is offered at 4.6, or about 22% in implied terms. The gap between the two sides in the market is substantial. Our model does not favour the outright result, instead leaning towards goals: the recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.1, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 44%. Worth noting up front, this selection shows a negative value edge of -7.6%, meaning the price sits below what our model considers fair. It is a lean rather than a strong value call for this Toluca versus FC Juárez clash.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 3.5 goals at 2.1, a goals-based lean rather than a backing of the result. With a negative value edge of -7.6% and implied confidence near 44%, this is a higher-risk selection priced below fair value. Stake modestly and only within your usual bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Atlante FC v León | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v Cruz Azul | 3.80 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| 29 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Pumas | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Atlas v Querétaro | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.48 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Pachuca v Guadalajara | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 30 Aug 01:00 | América v Puebla | 1.38 | 5.35 | 8.80 |
| 30 Aug 03:00 | Santos Laguna v Tigres | 4.48 | 4.03 | 1.75 |
| 31 Aug 02:00 | Monterrey v Atlético San Luis | 1.54 | 4.66 | 6.04 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.12, with a 46% confidence rating.
Toluca are the favourites at 1.42 with Unibet (NL), which implies roughly a 70% chance. FC Juárez are the outsiders at 6.0, around 17%.
The draw is available at 4.6 with Unibet (NL), implying about a 22% probability of the match ending level.
No selections cleared our value threshold for this fixture. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.1 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.6%, so treat it as a lean rather than a value spot.
Toluca vs FC Juárez takes place Mon · 00:00 in the Liga MX.
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