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አማርኛ ⚽ Liga MX 🕒 Sat · 23:00
Our tip
Pachuca to win
Odds
3.10
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 36%
AI Value edge 10.75% · best price at Tipico
Bet at Tipico Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Guadalajara are the market favourite at 2.35 (about 43% implied), narrowly ahead of Pachuca at 2.70 (about 37%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.35, roughly 30% implied, reflecting a tight, competitive matchup.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 carries around 55% market-implied confidence but a negative value edge of -7.27%.
04
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, suggesting the odds broadly reflect fair prices.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 50%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.82 |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.67 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 13.28 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.14. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
PAC Pachuca DLL
23 Aug 26 @ Atlético San Luis 1-1
18 Aug 26 vs Puebla 2-3
2 Aug 26 @ León 0-1
GUA Guadalajara WWD
23 Aug 26 vs Tijuana 5-2
17 Aug 26 @ Santos Laguna 1-0
1 Aug 26 @ Puebla 1-1
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · PAC | X | 2 · GUA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.10 | 3.42 | 2.30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.10 | 3.42 | 2.30 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| GTbets | 2.72 | 3.42 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 3.00 | 3.28 | 2.29 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.99 | 3.28 | 2.27 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Pachuca vs Guadalajara: match preview
This Liga MX meeting between Pachuca and Guadalajara comes with a market that leans towards the visitors. Guadalajara are priced at 2.35, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 43%, while hosts Pachuca sit at 2.70, or around 37%. The draw is offered at 3.35, close to 30% in implied terms, underlining a fixture the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided. The gap between the two teams is modest, so this is closer to a coin-flip than a clear mismatch. Our model does not favour either side outright; instead it looks at the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.7. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 55%. It is worth noting the value edge on this selection is negative at -7.27%, meaning the model sees no genuine value above the odds offered here, so treat it as a lean rather than a standout bet.
Verdict: The model leans towards Over 2.5 goals at 1.7, backed by roughly 55% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -7.27% means the price offers no clear advantage. Treat this as a modest lean at best, stake responsibly, and accept the outcome remains uncertain.
Upcoming Liga MX fixtures
All Liga MX tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Atlante FC v León | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v Cruz Azul | 3.80 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| 29 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Pumas | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Atlas v Querétaro | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.48 |
| 30 Aug 01:00 | América v Puebla | 1.38 | 5.35 | 8.80 |
| 30 Aug 03:00 | Santos Laguna v Tigres | 4.48 | 4.03 | 1.75 |
| 31 Aug 00:00 | Toluca v FC Juárez | 1.28 | 6.22 | 10.50 |
| 31 Aug 02:00 | Monterrey v Atlético San Luis | 1.54 | 4.66 | 6.04 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Pachuca vs Guadalajara?+
Our tip is Pachuca to win at odds of 3.10, with a 36% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Pachuca vs Guadalajara?+
Guadalajara are the slight favourites at 2.35, implying about 43% probability, ahead of Pachuca at 2.70, roughly 37%. The margin between them is small.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 3.35 with Unibet (SE), which equates to an implied probability of around 30%, consistent with a closely matched fixture.
Is there any value in this match?+
No selection cleared our value threshold against market consensus. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.7 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.27%, so it is a lean rather than a genuine value bet.
When does the match kick off?+
Pachuca vs Guadalajara takes place Sat · 23:00 in the Liga MX.