Liga MX · Mon · 02:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Monterrey are strong favourites at 1.72 (about 58% implied), with Atlético San Luis long outsiders at 4.1 (roughly 24%).
The draw is priced at 3.85, implying near 26% and sitting close to the away side's chances.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.54 carries around 60% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -7.28%.
No value picks cleared our threshold versus the market consensus, so the numbers suggest fair-to-short pricing throughout.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | 11.68 |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 12.29 |
| 3-1 | 7.3% | 13.77 |
| 1-0 | 7.2% | 13.85 |
| 3-0 | 6.1% | 16.34 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.26 and 1.19. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MON | X | 2 · ASL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.66 | 5.92 |
| Coolbet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.04 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.46 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.48 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
| Betsson | 1.48 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Monterrey host Atlético San Luis in this Liga MX fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At 1.72, Monterrey are priced as clear home favourites, implying roughly a 58% chance of a win before margin. Atlético San Luis are the outsiders at 4.1, translating to around a 24% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.85, or about 26%. Those numbers frame a contest the bookmakers expect the hosts to control, though not by a landslide. Rather than backing the result, our model leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.54, carrying a market-implied confidence near 60%. It's worth noting the value edge on that selection is negative at -7.28%, meaning the price offers no clear pricing advantage over the market. Treat this as an informational read on where the numbers point, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.54, backed by roughly 60% implied confidence. However, the -7.28% value edge means the price offers no genuine advantage over the market. This is a moderate-risk, no-value selection best viewed with caution rather than conviction. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Atlante FC v León | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v Cruz Azul | 3.80 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| 29 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Pumas | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Atlas v Querétaro | 2.30 | 3.40 | 3.48 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Pachuca v Guadalajara | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 30 Aug 01:00 | América v Puebla | 1.38 | 5.35 | 8.80 |
| 30 Aug 03:00 | Santos Laguna v Tigres | 4.48 | 4.03 | 1.75 |
| 31 Aug 00:00 | Toluca v FC Juárez | 1.28 | 6.22 | 10.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 62% confidence rating.
Monterrey are the market favourites at 1.72, implying about a 58% chance of a home win. Atlético San Luis are the outsiders at 4.1, around 24%.
The draw is available at 3.85, which implies roughly a 26% probability of the match ending level.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. Our recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.54 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.28%, so the market pricing offers no clear advantage.
Monterrey vs Atlético San Luis takes place Mon · 02:00 in the Liga MX.
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