Liga MX · Sat · 23:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Atlas are the favourite at 2.05, implying about a 49% chance, but that is far from a commanding margin.
Querétaro at 3.3 (roughly 30%) and the draw at 3.35 (also near 30%) are priced almost level, suggesting a tight fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.83 has a market-implied confidence of about 51%, close to a coin flip.
The value edge on the Over is -7.51%, meaning the price offers no positive edge against the market by our model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.0% | 7.72 |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.73 |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.33 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ATL | X | 2 · QUE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.48 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.48 |
| GTbets | 2.27 | 3.23 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.04 | 3.33 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.23 | 3.04 | 3.32 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atlas host Querétaro in this Liga MX fixture, and the market leans clearly toward the home side. Atlas are priced at 2.05, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 49%, marking them as the favourite without making them an overwhelming one. Querétaro sit at 3.3 (about 30% implied), while the draw is close behind at 3.35 (near 30%). Those numbers point to a contest the bookmakers see as competitive rather than one-sided, with the away win and the stalemate priced almost identically. Our model steers away from the match result and instead flags the Over 2.5 goals line at 1.83, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 51%. It is worth noting that this selection currently shows a negative value edge of -7.51%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. Treat it as a modest angle on this Atlas versus Querétaro meeting.
Verdict: Our model prefers Over 2.5 goals at 1.83, roughly a 51% implied shot. Be aware the value edge is negative at -7.51%, so this is a low-conviction lean rather than a priced advantage. Approach it as a modest interest bet and stake responsibly within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Atlante FC v León | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.60 |
| 29 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v Cruz Azul | 3.80 | 3.85 | 2.00 |
| 29 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Pumas | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Pachuca v Guadalajara | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| 30 Aug 01:00 | América v Puebla | 1.38 | 5.35 | 8.80 |
| 30 Aug 03:00 | Santos Laguna v Tigres | 4.48 | 4.03 | 1.75 |
| 31 Aug 00:00 | Toluca v FC Juárez | 1.28 | 6.22 | 10.50 |
| 31 Aug 02:00 | Monterrey v Atlético San Luis | 1.54 | 4.66 | 6.04 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
Atlas are the favourite at 2.05, implying about a 49% chance. Querétaro are the outsiders at 3.3, around 30% implied.
The draw is available at 3.35, an implied probability of roughly 30%, almost identical to Querétaro's away-win price.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.83 actually shows a negative edge of -7.51%, so treat it as a lean rather than a value bet.
Atlas vs Querétaro takes place Sat · 23:00 in the Liga MX.
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