Liga Profesional · Sun · 17:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Belgrano de Cordoba are priced at 1.91, implying a win probability of about 52%, the strongest signal in the match-result market
The draw at 3.18 implies roughly 31%, suggesting the market gives real weight to a stalemate despite the clear favourite tag
Aldosivi's 4.25 price implies about 23.5%, but the model's fair probability of 26% produces a positive edge near 10%, flagging possible value on the underdog
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.39 carries a market-implied confidence of 39% and a slightly negative edge of -6.72%, indicating limited model conviction on that line
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 17.5% | 5.73 |
| 0-0 | 15.2% | 6.59 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.79 |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 8.96 |
| 0-2 | 10.0% | 9.97 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.73 and 1.15. These six scorelines cover 74% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi Mar del Plata to win | 4.18 | +9.4% | 26% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AMD | X | 2 · BDC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.18 | 3.21 | 1.99 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.10 | 3.14 | 1.95 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.85 | 2.98 | 1.87 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.70 | 3.00 | 1.88 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.60 | 2.95 | 1.84 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.70 | 2.90 | 1.77 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Liga Profesional action pairs Aldosivi Mar del Plata against Belgrano de Cordoba, with the market firmly pointing toward an away win. Belgrano's best price of 1.91 implies a win probability of roughly 52%, making them clear favourites, while Aldosivi's 4.25 price corresponds to an implied chance of about 23.5%. The draw sits at 3.18, implying roughly 31% likelihood, keeping that outcome firmly in play given Belgrano's odds aren't overwhelmingly short. Our model's headline recommendation steers away from the match-result market entirely, instead flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.39 as the lead angle, albeit with a modest market-implied confidence of 39% and a slightly negative value edge of -6.72%. Separately, the data highlights a value angle on Aldosivi's outright win price, where the fair probability estimate of 26% against the 4.25 price produces a positive edge of just over 10%. Taken together, this is a fixture where the model sees more signal in secondary markets and long-shot value than in backing the favourite outright.
Verdict: The data points to Belgrano as clear favourites, but the model's actual recommendation, Over 2.5 goals at 2.39, carries only moderate confidence and a slightly negative edge, making it a speculative rather than high-conviction pick. The Aldosivi value angle is interesting on paper but remains a long-shot outcome; stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 22:00 | Sarmiento de Junin v River Plate | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.76 |
| 15 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Huracán v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.53 | 3.00 | 3.52 |
| 16 Oct 22:00 | Defensa y Justicia v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.86 | 3.06 | 2.76 |
| 17 Oct 00:30 | Boca Juniors v Talleres | 1.74 | 3.75 | 5.75 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | Banfield v Argentinos Juniors | 3.87 | 3.32 | 2.09 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Platense v Lanus | 2.90 | 2.98 | 2.84 |
| 17 Oct 20:30 | Independiente Rivadavia v CA Tigre BA | 1.96 | 3.28 | 4.70 |
| 17 Oct 23:00 | Atlético Tucuman v Rosario Central | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.46 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 61% confidence rating.
Belgrano de Cordoba are favourites based on the market, priced at 1.91 with Marathon Bet, which implies a win probability of roughly 52%.
The draw is priced at 3.18, implying an approximate 31% probability according to the available odds.
The model estimates Aldosivi's fair win probability at 26% against a market price of 4.25, producing a positive edge of about 10%, though this remains a lower-probability outcome and should be treated with caution.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata vs Belgrano de Cordoba takes place Sun · 17:45 in the Liga Profesional.
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