Greek Super League · Sat · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
AEK Athens are priced at 1.20 to win, implying an approximate 83 percent chance according to the market.
The draw at 6.3 implies roughly 15.9 percent, while Panetolikos at 15.0 implies only about 6.7 percent, underlining the gap between the sides.
The book overround across the three-way market is modest, suggesting reasonably efficient pricing on the result market itself.
The Over 2.5 goals pick carries a 57 percent model confidence but a negative value edge of -5.76 percent, meaning the price does not clearly exceed fair value by the model's own measure.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.9% | 6.71 |
| 2-0 | 14.9% | 6.73 |
| 3-0 | 9.9% | 10.12 |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | 11.20 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.22 |
| 0-0 | 7.5% | 13.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.00 and 0.60. These six scorelines cover 65% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AA | X | 2 · PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 1.13 | 7.30 | 18.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.14 | 7.10 | 16.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.12 | 7.20 | 17.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.10 | 6.75 | 12.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.09 | 6.00 | 13.50 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.09 | 6.25 | 12.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AEK Athens enter this Greek Super League fixture against Panetolikos Agrinio as a heavy market favourite. The best price on an AEK win sits at 1.20, which implies a win probability of roughly 83 percent, leaving Panetolikos at 15.0 (about 6.7 percent) and the draw at 6.3 (around 15.9 percent) as outside considerations. These figures point to a lopsided contest in the eyes of oddsmakers, with little expectation of an upset or stalemate. Away from the match-result market, attention turns to goal markets: the site's model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.66 as its recommended angle, built around an implied confidence of 57 percent, though the stated value edge is actually negative, meaning the current price may not fully reward that confidence. No other selections cleared the value threshold this round.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.66, reflecting 57 percent model confidence, though the negative value edge means this is not a standout value play, just a plausible outcome given AEK's heavy favourite status. Treat it as moderate-risk and size stakes conservatively, as with any single-match goals market.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Atromitos Athens v AEK Athens | 7.50 | 3.90 | 1.44 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kalamata FC v OFI Crete | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| 18 Oct 14:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v Olympiakos Piraeus | 10.00 | 5.25 | 1.34 |
| 18 Oct 14:30 | Panathinaikos v Asteras Tripolis | 1.26 | 6.80 | 14.10 |
| 18 Oct 17:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Aris Thessaloniki | 3.10 | 3.43 | 2.38 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Iraklis FC | 1.27 | 6.20 | 12.50 |
| 24 Oct 16:00 | Iraklis FC v AE Kifisia FC | 2.54 | 3.12 | 2.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.43, with a 66% confidence rating.
AEK Athens are strong favourites, priced at 1.20, which implies roughly an 83 percent win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 6.3, implying an approximate 15.9 percent chance based on current market data.
No selection cleared the site's value threshold outright; the Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.66 has 57 percent model confidence but actually shows a negative value edge of -5.76 percent, so it should be viewed as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong value bet.
AEK Athens vs Panetolikos Agrinio takes place Sat · 17:00 in the Greek Super League.
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