Jiya na Launi
Tsarin Odds
Gida/ Glossary/ Rarraba Poisson

Rarraba Poisson explained

Misalin ilmin ƙididdiga da aka yi amfani dashi wajen ƙididdige fadar wasanni — kofar gida a matsayin abubuwan da ba su da alakar juna kuma ana san matsakaicin adadi.

Rarraba Poisson yana bayar da yiwuwar abubuwan k lokacin da abubuwan suka iso kai tsaye a sanannun matsakaicin matsa λ: P(k) = e^−λ·λᵏ/k!. Ki say wa shi matsakaicin kofar wasan gida na ƙungiya, to zai samar da yiwuwar 0, 1, 2, 3… — kuma rarraba ƙungiyoyi biyu suna haɗa gida zuwa sako, 1X2, jimillar kofar da BTTS.

Ba ta da kyau ta hanya sananniyya — kofar suna tsoguwa ɗan ɗan, jumla suna yin faɗi ƙarƙashin faɗar da ta kamata — kuma kowane misalin wasanni mai gida, gida da kansu, ya fara daga gida da kuma gyara daga can. Karfinsa shine canza bayani ɗaya mai gida (matsakaicin kofar wasan gida) zuwa cikakken fili na yiwuwar.

Misali mai aiki

λ = 1.4 matsakaicin kofar wasan gida: P(0) = e^−1.4 ≈ 24.7%, P(1) ≈ 34.5%, P(2) ≈ 24.2%. Rarraba Poisson mai zai-zai a 1.4 da 1.1 suna ba P(1–1) ≈ 34.5% × 36.6% ≈ 12.6% — ilimin lissafi a ciki kowane faɗar sako dama da ka taɓa gani.

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