Ekstraklasa · Sat · 18:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Zagłębie Lubin are the favourites at 2.48 (about 40% implied), ahead of Pogoń Szczecin at 2.9 (about 34%).
The gap between the two sides is narrow, suggesting a closely matched contest rather than a one-sided result.
The draw at 3.4 implies roughly a 29% chance, a realistic possibility given the tight home-away split.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 carries a negative value edge of -5.76%, so the price offers no market-beating margin.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.9% | 7.75 |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | 8.52 |
| 0-1 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 0-0 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.74 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.90 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.32 and 1.10. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ZL | X | 2 · PS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.62 | 3.33 | 2.68 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.58 | 3.15 | 2.68 |
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.42 | 2.59 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Ekstraklasa clash sees Zagłębie Lubin host Pogoń Szczecin, and the market leans towards the home side. Zagłębie are priced at 2.48, which implies roughly a 40% chance of victory, while Pogoń at 2.9 sit closer to 34% in probability terms. The draw is offered at 3.4, translating to about a 29% chance, so the outcome is far from settled and the pricing points to a genuinely competitive fixture rather than a clear mismatch. Our model instead focuses on the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, carried by a market-implied confidence of around 54%. It is worth noting the value edge on this pick is negative at -5.76%, meaning the odds are not generously priced relative to the estimated probability. There is no standout value pick above threshold here, so this is a lean rather than a strong edge-based call.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.73, backed by about 54% implied confidence in a tightly priced match. However, the negative value edge means this is a modest call, not a value play. Treat it as a low-conviction pick and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 16:00 | Wisła Płock v Korona Kielce | 2.81 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Legia Warszawa v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.57 | 4.41 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 10:15 | Radomiak Radom v Cracovia Kraków | 3.06 | 3.59 | 2.35 |
| 29 Aug 12:45 | Motor Lublin v Piast Gliwice | 2.37 | 3.75 | 2.87 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Wisła Kraków v Wieczysta Kraków | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| 30 Aug 12:45 | Raków Częstochowa v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.15 | 3.79 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 15:30 | Górnik Zabrze v GKS Katowice | 1.87 | 3.85 | 4.00 |
| 30 Aug 18:15 | Widzew Łódź v Lech Poznań | 3.00 | 3.81 | 2.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Zagłębie Lubin are the favourites at 2.48, implying around a 40% chance. Pogoń Szczecin are priced at 2.9, roughly 34%.
The draw is available at 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 29% chance of the match ending level.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 actually shows a negative edge of -5.76%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Zagłębie Lubin vs Pogoń Szczecin takes place Sat · 18:15 in the Ekstraklasa.
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