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አማርኛ ⚽ Ekstraklasa 🕒 Sat · 12:45
Our tip
Motor Lublin to win
Odds
2.37
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 44%
AI Value edge 3.74% · best price at Pinnacle
Bet at Pinnacle Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Motor Lublin are the favourites at 2.39 (about 42% implied), but only narrowly ahead of Piast Gliwice at 2.83 (about 35%).
02
The gap between the two sides' prices is small, pointing to a competitive, closely matched fixture.
03
The draw is priced at 3.75, roughly 27% implied, a realistic outcome that should not be dismissed.
04
Our model flags a modest 4.44% value edge on Motor Lublin, with market-implied confidence around 44%.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 61%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.5% | 9.49 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.27 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
| 1-2 | 6.8% | 14.66 |
| 2-2 | 6.2% | 16.26 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.80 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
ML Motor Lublin DWL
22 Aug 26 @ Korona Kielce 1-1
16 Aug 26 vs GKS Katowice 1-0
8 Aug 26 @ Pogoń Szczecin 1-3
PG Piast Gliwice DLL
22 Aug 26 vs Legia Warszawa 1-1
15 Aug 26 vs Wieczysta Kraków 3-4
9 Aug 26 @ Lech Poznań 0-3
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · ML | X | 2 · PG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 3.51 | 2.87 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.33 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.33 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.56 | 2.78 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.29 | 3.56 | 2.76 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice: match preview
This Ekstraklasa fixture sees Motor Lublin host Piast Gliwice, with the market giving the home side a modest edge. Motor Lublin are priced at 2.39, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 42%, while Piast Gliwice sit at 2.83, or around 35%. The draw is quoted at 3.75, close to 27% in implied terms. Those numbers describe a genuinely open contest rather than a lopsided one, with the favourite far from a runaway pick. Our model leans towards Motor Lublin to win at 2.39, assigning market-implied confidence of about 44% and identifying a small value edge of 4.44% at the current price. That edge is slim but positive, suggesting the home odds may be marginally generous relative to their true chances. As always with tightly priced matches, the outcome remains uncertain and the margins are fine.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Motor Lublin to win at 2.39, backed by a small positive value edge of 4.44% and around 44% model confidence. This is a low-to-moderate risk lean rather than a strong call, given the tight pricing. Stake responsibly and treat the edge as marginal.
Upcoming Ekstraklasa fixtures
All Ekstraklasa tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 16:00 | Wisła Płock v Korona Kielce | 2.81 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Legia Warszawa v Śląsk Wrocław | 1.57 | 4.41 | 6.00 |
| 29 Aug 10:15 | Radomiak Radom v Cracovia Kraków | 3.06 | 3.59 | 2.35 |
| 29 Aug 15:30 | Wisła Kraków v Wieczysta Kraków | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 18:15 | Zagłębie Lubin v Pogoń Szczecin | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| 30 Aug 12:45 | Raków Częstochowa v Jagiellonia Białystok | 2.15 | 3.79 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 15:30 | Górnik Zabrze v GKS Katowice | 1.87 | 3.85 | 4.00 |
| 30 Aug 18:15 | Widzew Łódź v Lech Poznań | 3.00 | 3.81 | 2.30 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice?+
Our tip is Motor Lublin to win at odds of 2.37, with a 44% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice?+
Motor Lublin are the market favourites at 2.39, implying roughly a 42% chance. Piast Gliwice are close behind at 2.83, around 35%, so the margin is slim.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.75 with Coolbet, which equates to an implied probability of about 27%. It is a plausible outcome in a closely priced fixture.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model identifies a small value edge of 4.44% on Motor Lublin at 2.39, with market-implied confidence near 44%. No other selection cleared the value threshold, so the edge is modest.
When does the match kick off?+
Motor Lublin vs Piast Gliwice takes place Sat · 12:45 in the Ekstraklasa.