Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
key_factors
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.8% | 6.32 |
| 0-0 | 14.9% | 6.69 |
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | 7.95 |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 11.95 |
| 2-1 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.06 and 0.84. These six scorelines cover 72% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VSB | X | 2 · EST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 2.92 | 3.62 |
| Betsson | 2.35 | 2.92 | 3.45 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.35 | 2.92 | 3.45 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 2.80 | 3.30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.05 | 2.68 | 3.32 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05 | 2.75 | 3.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Velez Sarsfield BA host Estudiantes in the Liga Profesional, and the market has installed the home side as the favourite. At 2.30, Velez are priced at roughly 43% implied probability, while Estudiantes at 3.62 sit closer to 28%. The draw is quoted at 2.92, translating to about 34%, which points to a contest the bookmakers view as competitive rather than one-sided. Those figures leave Velez as clear but far from overwhelming favourites, with a genuine path to points for Estudiantes and a realistic stalemate on the table too. Our model does not lean on the match result here; instead it looks at goals, flagging Over 1.5 goals at 1.61. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 59%, though it is worth noting the value edge is negative, meaning the odds may not fully reward the bet. Approach any stake with normal bankroll discipline.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 59% confidence rating.
Velez Sarsfield BA vs Estudiantes takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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