MLS ยท Sat ยท 20:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The head-to-head prices are extremely close: Chicago Fire at 2.5 versus Seattle Sounders FC at 2.65, a small gap that hands the visitors only a slight edge.
Implied probabilities sit near 40% for Chicago, 38% for Seattle and 26% for the draw, marking this as close to an even contest.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 2.33 carries a negative value edge of -6.2%, so it falls below our value threshold rather than representing a clear overlay.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, reinforcing that this is a market-efficient fixture with no standout price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.39 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
| 0-1 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.59 and 1.56. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท SSF | X | 2 ยท CF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 4.20 | 2.26 |
| Betfair | 2.96 | 4.00 | 2.24 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.28 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.79 | 4.04 | 2.25 |
| BetAnything | 2.79 | 4.04 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 4.05 | 2.22 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This MLS meeting between Seattle Sounders FC and Chicago Fire is a genuinely tight one on the odds. Chicago Fire are marginally the shorter price at 2.5, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 40%, while home side Seattle Sounders FC sit at 2.65, or about 38%. The draw is priced at 3.8, near 26%. Those numbers describe a fixture the market sees as close to a coin flip, with only a slender lean toward the visitors despite Seattle playing at home. Our model steps away from the match-result line and looks at goals instead, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 2.33. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 40%, but note the value edge is negative at -6.2%, meaning it does not clear our value threshold. Treat this as a lean rather than a strong signal, and stake within a sensible bankroll approach for a competition as unpredictable as MLS.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 3.5 goals at 2.33, a high-scoring outcome priced around 40% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -6.2%, so this is a modest lean, not a strong recommendation. Stake cautiously and only within your usual bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New York City FC | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal | 1.49 | 5.82 | 6.80 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | D.C. United v Los Angeles FC | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 3.11 | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v New England Revolution | 1.98 | 4.17 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC | 2.42 | 4.12 | 3.00 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC | 1.87 | 4.58 | 4.06 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v FC Cincinnati | 1.96 | 4.53 | 3.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Seattle Sounders FC to win at odds of 3.00, with a 35% confidence rating.
Chicago Fire are the narrow favourites at 2.5, just ahead of Seattle Sounders FC at 2.65. The gap is small, implying a close match around 40% versus 38%.
The draw is priced at 3.8 with LeoVegas (SE), which implies a probability of roughly 26%.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 2.33 actually shows a negative value edge of -6.2%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Seattle Sounders FC vs Chicago Fire takes place Sat ยท 20:30 in the MLS.
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