MLS ยท Sat ยท 23:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Columbus Crew SC are favourites at 1.88, an implied probability of around 53%, ahead of the draw and the visitors.
New England Revolution are the outsiders at 4.0 (about 25% implied), with the draw priced very close behind at 3.85 (roughly 26%).
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.62 carries an implied confidence near 58%, suggesting the model expects an open game.
The value edge on that Over pick is negative (-5.81%), signalling the odds are marginally shorter than the model's fair estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.3% | 8.81 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.95 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 1-2 | 7.5% | 13.35 |
| 0-1 | 7.0% | 14.18 |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 14.45 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.61 and 1.32. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.17 | +9.2% | 26% | 62 |
| New England Revolution to win | 4.00 | +5.4% | 26% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท CCS | X | 2 ยท NER |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 4.17 | 3.67 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.88 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| GTbets | 1.98 | 3.69 | 3.67 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.58 | 3.79 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
| BetAnything | 1.96 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Columbus Crew SC host New England Revolution in this MLS fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Columbus are priced at 1.88, which translates to roughly a 53% implied chance of taking all three points, marking them as clear home favourites. New England sit well out at 4.0, implying around a 25% probability, while the draw is quoted at 3.85, or close to 26% in implied terms. That spread points to a match the bookmakers expect Columbus to shade rather than dominate outright. Our model, however, looks past the result line and toward goals: its recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, with a market-implied confidence of about 58%. Notably, the value edge here is negative at -5.81%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than the model considers fair. It is a lean based on expected goal flow rather than a standout value opportunity.
Verdict: The lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, backed by a 58% model confidence in a scoring contest. Be aware the value edge is negative, so the price offers no margin in your favour. Treat it as a modest-conviction play and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 20:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New York City FC | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal | 1.49 | 5.82 | 6.80 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | D.C. United v Los Angeles FC | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 3.11 | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC | 2.42 | 4.12 | 3.00 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC | 1.87 | 4.58 | 4.06 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v FC Cincinnati | 1.96 | 4.53 | 3.95 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.30, with a 43% confidence rating.
Columbus Crew SC are the favourites at 1.88, an implied probability of roughly 53%. New England Revolution are the outsiders at 4.0, around 25%.
The draw is priced at 3.85, which implies about a 26% chance. That is almost level with New England Revolution's win price.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The model's Over 2.5 goals lean at 1.62 actually shows a negative edge of -5.81%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than its fair estimate.
Columbus Crew SC vs New England Revolution takes place Sat ยท 23:30 in the MLS.
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