New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction & Odds

Our prediction

⚽ MLS 🕒 Sat · 23:30

NYR

New York Red Bulls

Philadelphia Union

Model lean

Over 3.5 goals

Odds

2.10

ⓘ Model lean, not an official pick — this fixture didn't clear our value threshold, so it isn't counted in the record

ConfidenceValue · 46%

AI Value edge -2.5% · best price at Coolbet

Bet at Coolbet

Key factors behind our tip

Philadelphia Union are favourites at 2.2 (about 45% implied), ahead of New York Red Bulls at 3.0 (about 33%).

The draw is priced at 4.0, implying roughly a 25% chance, so a stalemate is not heavily favoured.

The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet sits at 1.95 with around 48% implied confidence.

That goals pick shows a negative value edge of -6.4%, meaning it is not flagged as market-beating value.

Most likely scorelines

Both teams to score: 63%

Score	Model chance	Fair odds
1-1	10.5%	9.55
1-2	8.6%	11.59
2-1	8.1%	12.41
0-1	6.8%	14.71
2-2	6.6%	15.06
1-0	6.4%	15.72

From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.54 and 1.65. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.

Additional predictions

Market	Odds	Value edge	Confidence	AI score
Draw (X)	4.40	+9.8%	25%	62

Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.

Team form

NYR New York Red Bulls DLLWL

22 Aug 26 vs Chicago Fire 1-1

19 Aug 26 vs Nashville SC 0-1

15 Aug 26 @ Atlanta United FC 1-2

1 Aug 26 vs Orlando City SC 3-2

25 Jul 26 vs Charlotte FC 0-2

PU Philadelphia Union DDWWW

23 Aug 26 @ Austin FC 1-1

19 Aug 26 vs Inter Miami CF 2-2

16 Aug 26 @ New York City FC 3-2

1 Aug 26 vs Atlanta United FC 3-2

25 Jul 26 vs Seattle Sounders FC 1-0

Best odds across bookmakers

Bookmaker	1 · NYR	X	2 · PU
1xBet	2.99	4.40	2.13
LeoVegas (SE)	3.00	4.00	2.20
BetOnline.ag	3.11	3.90	2.12
BetAnything	3.11	3.90	2.12
Pinnacle	3.04	3.89	2.15
GTbets	2.98	4.04	2.12

Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union: match preview

This MLS meeting between New York Red Bulls and Philadelphia Union sees the visitors installed as clear favourites at the bookmakers. Philadelphia are priced at 2.2, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 45%, while New York Red Bulls sit at 3.0, or about 33% in probability terms. The draw is offered at 4.0, implying around 25%. That price structure paints Philadelphia as the side the market trusts most, though the gap is far from overwhelming and a home win remains a credible outcome at these odds. Our model, rather than backing a side, leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 1.95 with a market-implied confidence of about 48%. It is worth noting this pick carries a negative value edge of -6.4%, so it screens as a lean rather than a standout value play in this fixture.

Verdict: The model's lean is Over 3.5 goals at 1.95, but with a -6.4% value edge and no picks clearing the value threshold, this is a modest suggestion rather than a strong edge. Treat it as a higher-variance goals play and stake responsibly.

Upcoming MLS fixtures

All MLS tips →

Kick-off (UTC)	Match	1	X	2
29 Aug 20:30	Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire	3.00	4.20	2.30
29 Aug 23:30	Toronto FC v New York City FC	2.60	3.98	2.75
29 Aug 23:30	Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal	1.49	5.82	6.80
29 Aug 23:30	D.C. United v Los Angeles FC	3.50	4.01	2.08
29 Aug 23:30	Columbus Crew SC v New England Revolution	1.98	4.17	4.00
29 Aug 23:30	Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC	2.42	4.12	3.00
30 Aug 00:30	Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC	1.87	4.58	4.06
30 Aug 00:30	Nashville SC v FC Cincinnati	1.96	4.53	3.95

Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.

Match FAQ

What is the prediction for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?+

Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 46% confidence rating.

Who is the favourite for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?+

Philadelphia Union are the favourites at 2.2, implying around a 45% chance. New York Red Bulls are priced at 3.0, roughly 33%.

What are the odds on the draw?+

The draw is priced at 4.0 with LeoVegas (SE), which implies approximately a 25% probability.

Is there value in this match according to the model?+

No pick cleared the value threshold here. The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 1.95 actually carries a negative value edge of -6.4%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.

When does the match kick off?+

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.

New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union prediction