Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
San Lorenzo are the slim favourites at 2.73 (about 37% implied), but the gap to Talleres at 2.89 (about 35%) is minimal.
The draw is priced at 2.94, roughly 34% implied, so all three outcomes fall within a narrow band that points to an evenly matched contest.
Our recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 carries a market-implied confidence near 59%, reflecting expectation of at least a couple of goals.
The value edge on that pick is -4.96%, meaning the price sits below fair value on our model and no selection cleared the value threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 19.0% | 5.25 |
| 1-0 | 18.1% | 5.52 |
| 0-1 | 13.4% | 7.44 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.81 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 2-1 | 6.1% | 16.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.95 and 0.71. These six scorelines cover 78% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SL | X | 2 · TAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 2.94 | 2.89 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.00 | 2.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.50 | 2.75 | 2.65 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.43 | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.45 | 2.70 | 2.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Liga Profesional meeting between San Lorenzo and Talleres is priced as one of the closest matchups the market can offer. San Lorenzo sit as narrow home favourites at 2.73, which implies roughly a 37% chance of victory, while Talleres are only marginally longer at 2.89, or about 35% in probability terms. The draw at 2.94 translates to around 34%, underlining how tightly the bookmaker rates all three outcomes. In short, the odds describe a genuine coin-toss with a slight lean toward the hosts rather than a clear-cut edge. Because the result is so open, our model steps away from the match-result market and instead looks at goals. The recommended angle is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, with a market-implied confidence of about 59%. That price does not offer positive value on our numbers, so it is framed as a lean rather than a standout play in this fixture.
Verdict: The lean is Over 1.5 goals at 1.61, backed by around 59% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk pick rather than a value play, since our model shows a negative edge of nearly 5%. With the match result rated close to a toss-up, treat this as a modest angle and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.61, with a 59% confidence rating.
San Lorenzo are the slight favourites at 2.73, implying around a 37% chance. Talleres are close behind at 2.89, about 35%, so the market sees this as a tight contest.
The draw is priced at 2.94 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 34% probability. That is broadly in line with both match-winner prices, reflecting how even the fixture is rated.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.61 actually shows a negative edge of about -4.96%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
San Lorenzo vs Talleres takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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