Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Rosario Central are strong favourites at 1.77 (about 56% implied), well ahead of Newells Old Boys at 6.6 (roughly 15%).
The draw is priced at 3.03, implying around a 33% chance, typical of a tightly contested derby.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.56 carries about 61% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -4.84%.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus, suggesting the prices are broadly efficient.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.8% | 6.34 |
| 2-0 | 13.0% | 7.67 |
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.10 |
| 0-0 | 9.5% | 10.48 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 13.93 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 0.70. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RC | X | 2 · NOB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.03 | 6.36 |
| Betsson | 1.78 | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.78 | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.64 | 2.85 | 5.80 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.60 | 2.72 | 6.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.62 | 2.75 | 5.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Rosario Central against Newells Old Boys clash in the Liga Profesional is a classic derby, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Rosario Central are priced at 1.77, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 56%, marking them as clear home favourites. Newells Old Boys, by contrast, are a long shot at 6.6, implying only around a 15% chance, while the draw sits at 3.03, or about 33%. That is a substantial gap between the two sides in the eyes of the bookmakers. Rather than backing the outright result, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.56. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 61%. It is worth noting the value edge here is slightly negative at -4.84%, so this is more a lean than a standout value spot in a competitive fixture.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 1.5 goals at 1.56, a moderate-confidence play at around 61% implied probability. With a slightly negative value edge of -4.84%, this is not a value standout, so treat it as a low-conviction lean and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.56, with a 61% confidence rating.
Rosario Central are the favourites at 1.77, implying roughly a 56% chance. Newells Old Boys are outsiders at 6.6, around 15% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.03 with 1xBet, which implies approximately a 33% probability.
None of our value picks cleared the threshold, and the recommended Over 1.5 goals bet at 1.56 actually shows a negative edge of -4.84%, so the market looks broadly efficient here.
Rosario Central vs Newells Old Boys takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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