Ligue 1 ยท Sun ยท 15:15 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The price gap is wide: Rennes at 1.42 versus Le Mans FC at 6.2 shows the market rating the hosts heavily, at roughly 70% implied probability against about 16%.
The draw is quoted at 4.9, an implied probability near 20%, which our model considers underpriced with a fair probability of 25% and a 22.7% edge.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.6 has a 59% market-implied confidence but a negative value edge of -5.64%, making it a modest lean rather than a strong-value play.
On pure value, the draw offers the biggest positive edge of the available markets according to our screen.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท REN | X | 2 ยท LMF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 5.08 | 7.11 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.49 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.49 | 4.75 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.45 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.45 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.45 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Rennes host Le Mans FC in this Ligue 1 fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At 1.42, Rennes are priced as clear favourites, an outcome that translates to roughly a 70% implied probability. Le Mans FC sit at the other end of the scale at 6.2, implying around a 16% chance, while the draw is quoted at 4.9, or about 20% in probability terms. Our model does not chase the home win at those short odds; instead its recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.6, carrying a market-implied confidence of 59%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is negative at -5.64%, so it is more a lean than a standout price. Separately, our value screen flags the draw as the standout on pure edge, pricing it fairly at 25% against a 4.9 quote. This preview is built strictly on those numbers.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 2.5 goals at 1.6, backed by a 59% implied confidence, but the negative edge means it is far from a value standout. Treat it as a moderate-risk lean. Bettors chasing value on edge alone may instead note the draw at 4.9. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:45 | Lille v Paris Saint Germain | 4.80 | 4.07 | 1.83 |
| 29 Aug 15:15 | Strasbourg v RC Lens | 3.64 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Auxerre v Angers | 1.98 | 3.63 | 4.30 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Brest v Toulouse | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.79 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lyon v Le Havre | 1.52 | 4.70 | 7.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lorient v Troyes | 1.94 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Paris FC v Nice | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | AS Monaco v Marseille | 2.69 | 4.00 | 2.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.64, with a 60% confidence rating.
Rennes are the clear favourites at 1.42, which implies roughly a 70% probability. Le Mans FC are the outsiders at 6.2, around 16% implied.
The draw is available at 4.9, an implied probability of about 20%. Our model rates its fair probability higher at 25%, giving it a positive edge of 22.7%.
Our recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.6 actually carries a negative edge of -5.64%, so it is a lean rather than a value pick. On edge alone, the draw at 4.9 is the standout according to our screen.
Rennes vs Le Mans FC takes place Sun ยท 15:15 in the Ligue 1.
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