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แ แแญแ โฝ Ligue 1 ๐ Sat ยท 18:45
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.81
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 57%
AI Value edge 3.38% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Auxerre are clear favourites at 1.85, with the market implying roughly a 54% win probability against Angers' 23%.
02
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying around a 28% chance, consistent with a competitive, potentially tight encounter.
03
The Under 2.5 goals recommendation sits at 1.78 with about 53% implied confidence, but shows a negative value edge of -5.38%.
04
Angers at 4.4 carry a positive value edge of 7.05% versus a fair probability estimate of 24%, making them the notable value angle.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 43%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.0% | 6.68 |
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.41 |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 9.50 |
| 0-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | 11.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.41 and 0.83. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AUX Auxerre LWWWL
22 Aug 26 @ RC Lens 2-5
17 May 26 @ Lille 2-0
10 May 26 vs Nice 2-1
3 May 26 vs Angers SCO 3-1
25 Apr 26 @ Olympique Lyon 2-3
ANG Angers LDDLL
23 Aug 26 vs Lille 0-2
17 May 26 @ Brest 1-1
10 May 26 vs Strasbourg 1-1
3 May 26 @ Auxerre 1-3
25 Apr 26 vs PSG 0-3
Head-to-head: Auxerre v Angers
Full H2H history โ W 3 May 26
Auxerre 3-1 Angers SCOLigue 1
L 9 Nov 25
Angers SCO 2-0 AuxerreLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Auxerre's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AUX | X | 2 ยท ANG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.63 | 4.26 |
| Betfair | 1.97 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.95 | 3.58 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.96 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.96 | 3.50 | 4.25 |
| Coolbet | 1.98 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Auxerre vs Angers: match preview
This Ligue 1 clash sees Auxerre host Angers, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Auxerre are priced at 1.85, implying roughly a 54% chance of victory, while Angers drift out to 4.4, translating to around a 23% market probability. The draw sits at 3.6, or about 28% in implied terms, reflecting the kind of tight scoreline that mid-table Ligue 1 fixtures often produce. Our model leans toward a low-scoring game, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, which carries a market-implied confidence of around 53%. It is worth noting that this particular pick shows a negative value edge of -5.38%, so it is a lean on game shape rather than a price-driven edge. Interestingly, the numbers flag Angers at 4.4 as the standout value angle, with a fair probability of 24% against the market's implied figure. Weigh both directions before committing.
Verdict: The model's pick is Under 2.5 goals at 1.78, backing a low-scoring outcome with modest 53% implied confidence. Be aware it carries a negative value edge, so it reflects expected game shape rather than a priced advantage. Treat it as a moderate-risk lean and stake responsibly.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:45 | Lille v Paris Saint Germain | 4.80 | 4.07 | 1.83 |
| 29 Aug 15:15 | Strasbourg v RC Lens | 3.64 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Brest v Toulouse | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.79 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lyon v Le Havre | 1.52 | 4.70 | 7.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lorient v Troyes | 1.94 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Paris FC v Nice | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| 30 Aug 15:15 | Rennes v Le Mans FC | 1.49 | 5.08 | 7.30 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | AS Monaco v Marseille | 2.69 | 4.00 | 2.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Auxerre vs Angers?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 57% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Angers?+
Auxerre are the favourites at 1.85, which implies roughly a 54% chance of winning. Angers are the outsiders at 4.4, or about 23% implied probability.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Tipico, implying approximately a 28% chance of the game finishing level.
Is there any value in this fixture?+
The data flags Angers at 4.4 as the value angle, with a fair probability of 24% and a positive edge of 7.05%. The model's Under 2.5 goals pick, by contrast, shows a negative edge of -5.38%.
When does the match kick off?+
Auxerre vs Angers takes place Sat ยท 18:45 in the Ligue 1.