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แ แแญแ โฝ Ligue 1 ๐ Sat ยท 18:45
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.03
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 51%
AI Value edge 3.43% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Toulouse are narrowly favoured at 2.59 (about 39% implied), with Brest close behind at 2.85 (about 35%), a tight spread that signals a balanced fixture.
02
The draw at 3.4 implies roughly 29%, suggesting the market rates a stalemate as a realistic outcome.
03
Our model's recommended bet is Brest at 2.85, with a value edge of 3.74% against a market-implied confidence of 36%.
04
No value picks cleared the higher threshold, so the Brest lean is the only flagged edge and remains a modest one.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 58%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.58 |
| 2-1 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.76 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 0-1 | 7.8% | 12.82 |
| 2-0 | 6.4% | 15.72 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.50 and 1.37. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
BRE Brest DDLLL
22 Aug 26 @ Le Mans 2-2
17 May 26 vs Angers SCO 1-1
13 May 26 vs Strasbourg 1-2
10 May 26 @ PSG 0-1
3 May 26 @ Paris FC 0-4
TOU Toulouse LWWDL
22 Aug 26 vs Olympique Lyon 0-2
10 May 26 vs Olympique Lyon 2-1
3 May 26 @ Strasbourg 2-1
25 Apr 26 vs Monaco 2-2
17 Apr 26 @ RC Lens 2-3
Head-to-head: Brest v Toulouse
Full H2H history โ L 25 Jan 26
Brest 0-2 ToulouseLigue 1
L 24 Aug 25
Toulouse 2-0 BrestLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Brest's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BRE | X | 2 ยท TOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.73 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.74 | 3.40 | 2.72 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.69 |
| Pinnacle | 2.72 | 3.42 | 2.68 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Brest vs Toulouse: match preview
This Ligue 1 meeting between Brest and Toulouse looks closely contested according to the market. Toulouse are the marginal favourites at 2.59, which translates to an implied probability of around 39%, while Brest sit just behind at 2.85, or roughly 35% in the raw prices. The draw is priced at 3.4, implying about 29% and reflecting a fixture the bookmakers view as competitive rather than one-sided. The narrow gap between the two win prices underlines how finely balanced this encounter is on paper. Our model, however, leans towards the home side, flagging Brest to win at 2.85 with Tipico as its recommended selection. The reasoning is value-based: at a market-implied confidence of about 36%, the model calculates a small edge of 3.74% over the offered price. That is a modest advantage rather than a strong signal, so this is a lean rather than a standout pick in this Brest versus Toulouse clash.
Verdict: The recommended play is Brest to win at 2.85 with Tipico, backed by a small 3.74% value edge. With implied confidence near 36% and Toulouse marginally favoured, this is a slim-edge, higher-variance pick. Stake responsibly and treat it as a lean, not a strong call.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:45 | Lille v Paris Saint Germain | 4.80 | 4.07 | 1.83 |
| 29 Aug 15:15 | Strasbourg v RC Lens | 3.64 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Auxerre v Angers | 1.98 | 3.63 | 4.30 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lyon v Le Havre | 1.52 | 4.70 | 7.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lorient v Troyes | 1.94 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Paris FC v Nice | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| 30 Aug 15:15 | Rennes v Le Mans FC | 1.49 | 5.08 | 7.30 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | AS Monaco v Marseille | 2.69 | 4.00 | 2.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Brest vs Toulouse?+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 51% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Brest vs Toulouse?+
Toulouse are the slight favourites at 2.59 (about 39% implied), just ahead of Brest at 2.85 (about 35%). The gap is narrow, so the market sees this as a close contest.
What are the draw odds for this match?+
The best available draw price is 3.4 with Nordic Bet, which implies roughly a 29% chance of the game ending level.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model identifies a modest edge on Brest to win at 2.85, worth about 3.74% versus the price. No selections cleared the higher value threshold, so it is a small edge rather than a standout opportunity.
When does the match kick off?+
Brest vs Toulouse takes place Sat ยท 18:45 in the Ligue 1.