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แ แแญแ โฝ Ligue 1 ๐ Sat ยท 18:45
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.15
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 50%
AI Value edge 8.27% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Lyon are strong favourites at 1.54, implying about a 65% chance, with Le Havre well behind at 5.9 (around 17%).
02
The draw is priced at 4.5, roughly a 22% implied probability, a fairly standard mid-range number for a favourite-heavy match.
03
The recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 2.0, carrying a market-implied confidence of 48% and a slight negative value edge of -4.71%.
04
The model's value flags favour the underdog outcomes: Le Havre shows a 24.79% edge (fair prob 21%) and the draw a 14.1% edge (fair prob 25%).
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 44%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.5% | 6.90 |
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.51 |
| 2-0 | 11.4% | 8.76 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.81 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.86 |
| 0-1 | 7.5% | 13.40 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.57 and 0.81. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
LYO Lyon WLLWW
22 Aug 26 @ Toulouse 2-0
17 May 26 vs RC Lens 0-4
10 May 26 @ Toulouse 1-2
3 May 26 vs Stade Rennais 4-2
25 Apr 26 vs Auxerre 3-2
LH Le Havre LWLDD
23 Aug 26 vs Monaco 0-1
17 May 26 @ Lorient 2-0
10 May 26 vs Marseille 0-1
3 May 26 @ Lille 1-1
26 Apr 26 vs FC Metz 4-4
Head-to-head: Lyon v Le Havre
Full H2H history โ D 15 Mar 26
Le Havre 0-0 Olympique LyonLigue 1
W 14 Dec 25
Olympique Lyon 1-0 Le HavreLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Lyon's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LYO | X | 2 ยท LH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.52 | 4.67 | 6.86 |
| Betfair | 1.51 | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.51 | 4.60 | 6.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.51 | 4.60 | 6.75 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Lyon vs Le Havre: match preview
Lyon host Le Havre in this Ligue 1 fixture as clear favourites in the eyes of the market. At 1.54, Lyon are priced with an implied probability of roughly 65%, marking them as the side the bookmakers expect to control proceedings. The draw sits at 4.5 (around 22% implied), while Le Havre are the outsiders at 5.9, which converts to only about 17% in the eyes of the market. Those numbers paint a familiar picture of a home favourite against a priced-up underdog. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result market and toward totals: it recommends Under 2.5 goals at 2.0 with a market-implied confidence of 48%. Notably, the value flags fall on the outcomes the market rates as unlikely, with edges identified on both Le Havre and the draw. Below we break down where the prices and probabilities point, and how the recommended bet fits.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.0. With market-implied confidence around 48% and a small negative value edge, this is close to a coin-flip proposition rather than a standout spot. Treat it as a modest, considered wager and stake within your usual limits.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:45 | Lille v Paris Saint Germain | 4.80 | 4.07 | 1.83 |
| 29 Aug 15:15 | Strasbourg v RC Lens | 3.64 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Auxerre v Angers | 1.98 | 3.63 | 4.30 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Brest v Toulouse | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.79 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lorient v Troyes | 1.94 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Paris FC v Nice | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| 30 Aug 15:15 | Rennes v Le Mans FC | 1.49 | 5.08 | 7.30 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | AS Monaco v Marseille | 2.69 | 4.00 | 2.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Lyon vs Le Havre?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15, with a 50% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Lyon vs Le Havre?+
Lyon are the clear favourites at 1.54, an implied probability of about 65%. Le Havre are the outsiders at 5.9, roughly 17%.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is best priced at 4.5 with GTbets, which equates to an implied probability of around 22%.
Is there any value in this match?+
The model highlights value on the underdog outcomes: Le Havre at 5.9 shows a 24.79% edge and the draw at 4.5 a 14.1% edge. The featured Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.0 actually carries a small negative edge of -4.71%.
When does the match kick off?+
Lyon vs Le Havre takes place Sat ยท 18:45 in the Ligue 1.