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แ แแญแ โฝ Ligue 1 ๐ Sun ยท 13:00
Our tip
Paris FC to win
Odds
2.23
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 49%
AI Value edge 8.7% ยท best price at Unibet (SE)
Bet at Unibet (SE) Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Paris FC are favourites at 2.15, implying roughly a 47% chance, with Nice the outsiders at 3.2 (around 31%).
02
The price gap between the sides is fairly narrow, suggesting the market sees a competitive match.
03
The draw at 3.4 carries an implied probability of about 29%, a realistic outcome worth noting.
04
Our model flags a modest value edge of about 4.05% on Paris FC at 2.15, the only pick above threshold.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 50%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.2% | 8.18 |
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | 9.76 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.36 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.70 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.53 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.68 and 0.94. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice to win | 3.85 | +3.1% | 27% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
PF Paris FC DWLWL
22 Aug 26 @ Troyes 0-0
17 May 26 vs PSG 2-1
10 May 26 @ Stade Rennais 1-2
3 May 26 vs Brest 4-0
26 Apr 26 vs Lille 0-1
NIC Nice DDLDD
22 Aug 26 vs Lorient 0-0
17 May 26 vs FC Metz 0-0
10 May 26 @ Auxerre 1-2
2 May 26 vs RC Lens 1-1
26 Apr 26 @ Marseille 1-1
Head-to-head: Paris FC v Nice
Full H2H history โ W 1 Mar 26
Paris FC 1-0 NiceLigue 1
D 28 Sept 25
Nice 1-1 Paris FCLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Paris FC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท PF | X | 2 ยท NIC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.74 |
| Betfair | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.85 |
| GTbets | 2.16 | 3.42 | 3.63 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.13 | 3.44 | 3.68 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.23 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Paris FC vs Nice: match preview
This Ligue 1 encounter sees Paris FC host Nice, with the market leaning towards the home side at 2.15 with Tipico. That price translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 47%, marking Paris FC as narrow favourites rather than clear-cut ones. Nice sit at 3.2 with Unibet, implying around a 31% chance, while the draw is priced at 3.4 with Tipico, about 29% in probability terms. The gap between the two teams is modest, which points to a fixture the market views as competitive rather than one-sided. Our model recommends backing Paris FC to win at 2.15, attaching a market-implied confidence of 48% and identifying a small value edge of around 4.05% at that price. That edge is slim, so this is best treated as a lean towards the favourites rather than a strong conviction call in this Ligue 1 fixture.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Paris FC to win at 2.15, supported by a market-implied confidence of 48% and a small 4.05% value edge. This is a moderate-risk lean rather than a strong call, given the narrow gap to Nice. Stake responsibly and keep it within a sensible bankroll.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:45 | Lille v Paris Saint Germain | 4.80 | 4.07 | 1.83 |
| 29 Aug 15:15 | Strasbourg v RC Lens | 3.64 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Auxerre v Angers | 1.98 | 3.63 | 4.30 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Brest v Toulouse | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.79 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lyon v Le Havre | 1.52 | 4.70 | 7.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lorient v Troyes | 1.94 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 30 Aug 15:15 | Rennes v Le Mans FC | 1.49 | 5.08 | 7.30 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | AS Monaco v Marseille | 2.69 | 4.00 | 2.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Paris FC vs Nice?+
Our tip is Paris FC to win at odds of 2.23, with a 49% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Paris FC vs Nice?+
Paris FC are the favourites at 2.15, which implies about a 47% chance. Nice are priced at 3.2, roughly a 31% implied probability.
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Tipico, equating to an implied probability of around 29%.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model identifies a small value edge of about 4.05% on Paris FC to win at 2.15. It is a modest edge, so treat it as a slight lean rather than a strong recommendation.
When does the match kick off?+
Paris FC vs Nice takes place Sun ยท 13:00 in the Ligue 1.