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แ แแญแ โฝ Ligue 1 ๐ Fri ยท 18:45
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.17
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 49%
AI Value edge 6.35% ยท best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
PSG are the market favourites at 1.78 (about 56% implied), with Lille the outsiders at 4.4 (around 23%).
02
The draw is priced at 3.9, implying roughly 26% and sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
03
Our recommended bet, Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, shows a 3.61% value edge with market-implied confidence of 48%.
04
Lille at 4.4 is rated a value pick, with a fair probability of 24% giving an edge of just over 6%.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 48%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.73 |
| 1-1 | 11.9% | 8.38 |
| 2-0 | 10.2% | 9.79 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.60 |
| 0-0 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 0.92. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
LIL Lille WLWDW
23 Aug 26 @ Angers SCO 2-0
17 May 26 vs Auxerre 0-2
10 May 26 @ Monaco 1-0
3 May 26 vs Le Havre 1-1
26 Apr 26 @ Paris FC 1-0
PSG Paris Saint Germain DWLWL
22 Aug 26 @ Troyes 0-0
17 May 26 vs PSG 2-1
10 May 26 @ Stade Rennais 1-2
3 May 26 vs Brest 4-0
26 Apr 26 vs Lille 0-1
Head-to-head: Lille v Paris Saint Germain
Full H2H history โ W 26 Apr 26
Paris FC 0-1 LilleLigue 1
W 23 Nov 25
Lille 4-2 Paris FCLigue 1
W/D/L shown from Lille's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LIL | X | 2 ยท PSG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.67 | 4.07 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.76 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.50 | 3.95 | 1.81 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.50 | 3.95 | 1.81 |
| Coolbet | 4.44 | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.77 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: match preview
Lille host Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 with the away side installed as clear favourites. PSG are priced as short as 1.78, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 56%, while a Lille home win is available at 4.4, or around 23% in probability terms. The draw sits at 3.9, implying about 26%. That price gap tells you the market leans firmly towards the visitors, though nothing here is a formality at these odds. Our model's recommended angle isn't the match result but the goals line: Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 with William Hill, carrying a market-implied confidence of 48% and a modest value edge of 3.61%. Separately, Lille at 4.4 is flagged as a value pick, with a fair probability of 24% and an edge of just over 6% against the market consensus. Approach both selections with sensible stakes.
Verdict: The headline recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 2.15, a near coin-flip play with a small 3.61% edge and 48% implied confidence. Lille at 4.4 offers a longer-odds value angle. Both carry real risk given the pricing, so stake responsibly and treat neither as a certainty.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
All Ligue 1 tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 15:15 | Strasbourg v RC Lens | 3.64 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Auxerre v Angers | 1.98 | 3.63 | 4.30 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Brest v Toulouse | 2.74 | 3.50 | 2.79 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lyon v Le Havre | 1.52 | 4.70 | 7.25 |
| 29 Aug 18:45 | Lorient v Troyes | 1.94 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| 30 Aug 13:00 | Paris FC v Nice | 2.23 | 3.50 | 3.85 |
| 30 Aug 15:15 | Rennes v Le Mans FC | 1.49 | 5.08 | 7.30 |
| 30 Aug 18:45 | AS Monaco v Marseille | 2.69 | 4.00 | 2.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Ligue 1 standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 2 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Lille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 | Olympique Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | PSG | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Brest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Stade Rennais | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Nice | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Auxerre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Strasbourg | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.17, with a 49% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Lille vs PSG?+
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites at 1.78, implying roughly a 56% chance. Lille are the outsiders at 4.4, around 23% implied.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is best priced at 3.9 with Tipico, which implies approximately a 26% probability.
Is there any value in this match?+
Our model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.15 with a 3.61% edge, plus Lille at 4.4 as a value pick with a fair probability of 24% and an edge just above 6%. Value does not guarantee a win.
When does the match kick off?+
Lille vs Paris Saint Germain takes place Fri ยท 18:45 in the Ligue 1.