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አማርኛ ⚽ Eredivisie 🕒 23 Aug 2026
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
2.24
LostResult
5-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
46%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Matchbook
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
PSV Eindhoven are heavily favoured at 1.38, implying about a 72% chance of victory in the market's pricing.
02
Groningen are long outsiders at 7.75 (around 13% implied), reflecting the sizeable price gap between the sides.
03
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.86 carries 52% model confidence but a negative value edge of -3.63%, so it is not a strong-value flag.
04
The draw at 6.0 is our identified value pick, with a fair probability near 18% and a positive edge of 6.8%.
Team form
PE PSV Eindhoven DWWDW
8 Aug 26 vs Sittard 2-2
17 May 26 vs Twente 5-1
10 May 26 @ Go Ahead 4-1
2 May 26 @ Ajax 2-2
23 Apr 26 vs Zwolle 6-1
GRO Groningen WWWLL
9 Aug 26 vs Utrecht 2-1
17 May 26 @ Heracles 2-1
10 May 26 vs NEC 2-1
2 May 26 vs Excelsior 2-3
25 Apr 26 @ Feyenoord 1-3
Head-to-head: PSV Eindhoven v Groningen
Full H2H history → W 8 Feb 26
Groningen 1-2 PSVEredivisie
W 23 Aug 25
PSV 4-2 GroningenEredivisie
W/D/L shown from PSV Eindhoven's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen: pre-match preview
PSV Eindhoven open their Eredivisie meeting with Groningen as clear favourites, priced at 1.38 to take all three points. That short number translates to an implied probability of roughly 72%, marking PSV as a strong home pick in the market's eyes. Groningen sit at the other end at 7.75, or around 13% implied, while the draw is offered at 6.0, close to 17% in probability terms. The gap between the two sides is substantial. Our model, however, looks past the match result and toward goals: the recommended bet is Over 3.5 goals at 1.86, carrying a market-implied confidence of 52%. Worth noting is that this pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -3.63%, so it is not flagged as strong value. Separately, the draw at 6.0 registers a positive edge on our numbers. As always with an early-season fixture, treat these prices as a probability guide rather than a certainty.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 3.5 goals at 1.86, backed by 52% confidence but a slightly negative value edge, so treat it as a moderate-risk lean rather than a standout. The draw at 6.0 is the one flagged for positive value. Stake responsibly given the uncertainty.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 5-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Eredivisie fixtures
All Eredivisie tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:00 | Groningen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.52 | 5.20 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam | 2.48 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Go Ahead Eagles | 1.41 | 5.60 | 7.30 |
| 29 Aug 19:00 | FC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen | 4.50 | 4.53 | 1.74 |
| 30 Aug 10:15 | FC Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven | 4.53 | 4.75 | 1.69 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag | 1.18 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Willem II v Heerenveen | 4.10 | 4.30 | 1.88 |
| 30 Aug 14:45 | SC Telstar v Ajax | 5.00 | 4.80 | 1.66 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Eredivisie standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Go Ahead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | PSV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Sparta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?+
Our tip was Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.24.
Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Groningen?+
PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites at 1.38, which implies roughly a 72% chance of winning. Groningen are priced at 7.75, around 13% implied.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 6.0 with Tipico, equating to about 17% implied probability. Our model rates its fair probability near 18%, giving it a positive value edge of 6.8%.
Is there value in this match?+
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.86 has 52% model confidence but a negative edge of -3.63%, so it is not strong value. The draw at 6.0 is the pick showing a positive edge on our numbers.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 5-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).