Eredivisie ยท Sun ยท 10:15 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
PSV Eindhoven are heavy favourites at 1.68, implying roughly a 60% chance, while FC Utrecht at 4.6 sit near 22%.
The draw is priced at 4.53, almost level with the home win, suggesting the market sees a stalemate as no more likely than an Utrecht victory.
Our model assigns FC Utrecht a fair probability of about 24% versus their implied price, producing a notable value edge of around 10.85%.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals line at 1.84 carries about 52% implied confidence but a slightly negative edge of -3.94%, making it a modest lean.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.93 |
| 2-1 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
| 2-2 | 7.1% | 14.12 |
| 0-1 | 5.4% | 18.52 |
| 1-3 | 5.1% | 19.49 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.69 and 1.84. These six scorelines cover 43% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from FC Utrecht's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท FU | X | 2 ยท PE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 4.50 | 4.75 | 1.67 |
| 1xBet | 4.53 | 4.53 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.30 | 4.60 | 1.69 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.45 | 4.45 | 1.67 |
| Coolbet | 4.40 | 4.50 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 4.41 | 4.45 | 1.66 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Eredivisie meeting between FC Utrecht and PSV Eindhoven arrives with the visitors clearly ahead in the market. PSV are priced around 1.68, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 60%, marking them as strong favourites at their opponents' ground. FC Utrecht are a distant outsider at 4.6, or about 22% implied, while the draw sits close behind at 4.53, near 22% as well. The gap between the two sides is substantial and reflects the market's confidence in PSV. Our model, however, does not chase the favourite. Instead it recommends Under 3.5 goals at 1.84, with a market-implied confidence of around 52%. That said, the flagged value edge on this specific line is slightly negative, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. Below we break down where the numbers point and where any perceived value in the FC Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven odds may lie.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 3.5 goals at 1.84, backed by roughly 52% model confidence. Be aware the value edge here is marginally negative, so treat it as a low-conviction lean rather than a strong call. Stake responsibly and keep your bankroll in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:00 | Groningen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.52 | 5.20 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam | 2.48 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Go Ahead Eagles | 1.41 | 5.60 | 7.30 |
| 29 Aug 19:00 | FC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen | 4.50 | 4.53 | 1.74 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag | 1.18 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Willem II v Heerenveen | 4.10 | 4.30 | 1.88 |
| 30 Aug 14:45 | SC Telstar v Ajax | 5.00 | 4.80 | 1.66 |
| 30 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v FC Twente Enschede | 8.70 | 5.60 | 1.36 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Go Ahead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | PSV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Sparta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 48% confidence rating.
PSV Eindhoven are the clear favourites at 1.68, an implied probability of around 60%. FC Utrecht are the outsiders at 4.6, roughly 22%.
The draw is priced at 4.53 with 1xBet, which implies about a 22% chance and sits almost level with the FC Utrecht win price.
Our model flags FC Utrecht at 4.6 with a fair probability of 24% and an edge of about 10.85%, and the draw with around 7.12% edge. The recommended Under 3.5 goals line, however, shows a slightly negative edge.
FC Utrecht vs PSV Eindhoven takes place Sun ยท 10:15 in the Eredivisie.
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