Eredivisie ยท Sat ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
NEC Nijmegen are the market favourites at 1.79, implying roughly a 56% chance of the away win.
FC Zwolle at 4.5 (about 22%) and the draw at 4.3 (about 23%) are priced very closely, showing the market sees a home win and a stalemate as similar long shots.
Our model's only qualifying pick is Over 3.0 goals at 1.71, with an estimated 12.01% value edge over the price.
No match-result selection cleared our value threshold, so the recommended angle is on goals rather than the outcome.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 2-2 | 6.8% | 14.77 |
| 1-3 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
| 2-1 | 6.3% | 15.75 |
| 0-2 | 6.0% | 16.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.50 and 2.13. These six scorelines cover 43% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from FC Zwolle's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท FZ | X | 2 ยท NN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 4.35 | 4.50 | 1.73 |
| 1xBet | 4.46 | 4.53 | 1.68 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.38 | 4.50 | 1.67 |
| BetAnything | 4.38 | 4.50 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 4.33 | 4.46 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.74 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Eredivisie meeting at FC Zwolle sees the hosts installed as clear underdogs against NEC Nijmegen, and the numbers explain why. NEC are priced at 1.79 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 56% for the away win. Zwolle, at a best price of 4.5, sit around 22% in implied terms, while the draw is quoted at 4.3 (about 23%). Those figures leave little doubt about which side the market prefers, though the gap is far from a formality given that Zwolle still carry meaningful backing. Rather than side with the match result, our model steers toward the goals market. The recommended bet is Over 3.0 goals at 1.71 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence of 53% and a value edge of about 12%. It is an attacking angle on a fixture the market reads as one-sided but potentially open.
Verdict: The play here is Over 3.0 goals at 1.71, supported by a modelled 12% edge and around 53% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk bet: better than an even-money proposition in the model's view, but goals markets are volatile and a low-scoring game would sink it. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:00 | Groningen v Fortuna Sittard | 1.52 | 5.20 | 6.25 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam | 2.48 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Go Ahead Eagles | 1.41 | 5.60 | 7.30 |
| 30 Aug 10:15 | FC Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven | 4.53 | 4.75 | 1.69 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag | 1.18 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Willem II v Heerenveen | 4.10 | 4.30 | 1.88 |
| 30 Aug 14:45 | SC Telstar v Ajax | 5.00 | 4.80 | 1.66 |
| 30 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v FC Twente Enschede | 8.70 | 5.60 | 1.36 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Go Ahead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | PSV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Sparta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 46% confidence rating.
NEC Nijmegen are favourites at a best price of 1.79, which implies roughly a 56% chance of the away win. FC Zwolle are outsiders at 4.5.
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Coolbet, an implied probability of about 23%, almost identical to the home win at 4.5.
No match-result selection cleared our value threshold. The only qualifying pick is Over 3.0 goals at 1.71, which our model rates with a 12.01% value edge and about 53% implied confidence.
FC Zwolle vs NEC Nijmegen takes place Sat ยท 19:00 in the Eredivisie.
English 
Espaรฑol 
Portuguรชs 
Deutsch 
Franรงais 
Kiswahili 
Hausa 
แ แแญแ 
