Eredivisie ยท Fri ยท 18:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Groningen are heavy favourites at 1.49 (about 67% implied), with Fortuna Sittard a distant outsider at 6.25 (roughly 16%).
The gap between the two match-result prices is wide, underlining how firmly the market backs the home side.
The draw at 4.93 carries a fair probability estimate of 22% against its implied price, producing a positive value edge of 9.89%.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 shows a slightly negative edge of -4.04%, so it functions as a modest lean rather than a strong value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 11.16 |
| 2-0 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
| 3-0 | 5.8% | 17.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.97 and 1.12. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.20 | +3.4% | 20% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Groningen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท GRO | X | 2 ยท FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 1.47 | 5.20 | 6.25 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.90 | 6.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.89 | 5.97 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.48 | 4.85 | 5.95 |
| BetAnything | 1.48 | 4.85 | 5.95 |
| Coolbet | 1.47 | 4.75 | 6.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Eredivisie meeting at Groningen sees the hosts installed as clear favourites against Fortuna Sittard. Groningen are priced as short as 1.49, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 67%, marking them out as the side the market strongly expects to take the points. Fortuna Sittard, by contrast, drift out to 6.25, implying only about a 16% chance of an away win, while the draw sits at 4.93, or around 20% in probability terms once the bookmaker margin is stripped out. Our model leans towards Under 3.5 goals at 1.76, reflecting a market-implied confidence near 55% that this game stays reasonably contained. It is worth noting the value edge on that Under line is slightly negative at -4.04%, so it reads more as a lean than a standout price. The most interesting value flag from our numbers actually falls on the draw, discussed below.
Verdict: The model's recommended bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.76, backed by around 55% implied confidence but a small negative value edge, making it a moderate-risk lean rather than a standout. The draw at 4.93 is the more intriguing value flag. Stake responsibly and only within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Excelsior v Sparta Rotterdam | 2.48 | 3.90 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 16:45 | AZ Alkmaar v Go Ahead Eagles | 1.41 | 5.60 | 7.30 |
| 29 Aug 19:00 | FC Zwolle v NEC Nijmegen | 4.50 | 4.53 | 1.74 |
| 30 Aug 10:15 | FC Utrecht v PSV Eindhoven | 4.53 | 4.75 | 1.69 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Feyenoord v ADO Den Haag | 1.18 | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| 30 Aug 12:30 | Willem II v Heerenveen | 4.10 | 4.30 | 1.88 |
| 30 Aug 14:45 | SC Telstar v Ajax | 5.00 | 4.80 | 1.66 |
| 30 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v FC Twente Enschede | 8.70 | 5.60 | 1.36 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 | Go Ahead | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 | PSV | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 7 |
| 5 | Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Sparta | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Sittard | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 11 | NEC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 12 | Twente | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 14 | Zwolle | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Utrecht | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Groningen are the clear favourites at 1.49, implying roughly a 67% chance. Fortuna Sittard are priced at 6.25, around 16% implied.
The draw is available at 4.93, implying about a 20% chance. Our model puts its fair probability closer to 22%, giving a positive value edge of 9.89%.
Our numbers highlight the draw at 4.93 as the main value angle with a 9.89% edge. The recommended Under 3.5 goals at 1.76 actually shows a slightly negative edge of -4.04%, so it is more of a lean.
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard takes place Fri ยท 18:00 in the Eredivisie.
English 
Espaรฑol 
Portuguรชs 
Deutsch 
Franรงais 
Kiswahili 
Hausa 
แ แแญแ 
