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แ แแญแ โฝ MLS ๐ Fri ยท 23:30
Our tip
Nashville SC to win
Odds
2.94
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 36%
AI Value edge 4.41% ยท best price at MyBookie.ag
Bet at MyBookie.ag Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
NYCFC are the favourites at 2.38, an implied probability of about 42%, but that is far from a dominant price.
02
Nashville SC at 3.0 imply roughly 33% from the market, yet our model rates their chance closer to 35%, creating the flagged value edge.
03
The draw is priced at 3.62, around 28% implied, reflecting a genuine three-way outcome rather than a clear mismatch.
04
The recommended Nashville win carries a 6.38% value edge, the only selection our model highlights on this fixture.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 56%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.31 |
| 0-1 | 9.0% | 11.11 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.64 |
| 1-0 | 8.4% | 11.88 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.45 |
| 0-2 | 6.4% | 15.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.43. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.92 | +7.9% | 28% | 62 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
NYC New York City FC DLLDW
23 Aug 26 @ New England Revolution 1-1
19 Aug 26 @ FC Cincinnati 1-2
16 Aug 26 vs Philadelphia Union 2-3
31 Jul 26 vs Toronto FC 1-1
25 Jul 26 vs Chicago Fire 3-1
NS Nashville SC WWWDL
23 Aug 26 vs Columbus Crew SC 3-2
19 Aug 26 @ New York Red Bulls 1-0
16 Aug 26 vs Inter Miami CF 4-1
1 Aug 26 @ D.C. United 2-2
26 Jul 26 @ Orlando City SC 0-1
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท NYC | X | 2 ยท NS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.35 | 3.92 | 2.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.82 |
| Betsson | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.82 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.29 | 3.54 | 2.83 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.94 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
New York City FC vs Nashville SC: match preview
This MLS clash sees New York City FC host Nashville SC, with the market leaning towards the home side. NYCFC are priced at 2.38 at 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 42%, making them the favourite. Nashville SC sit at 3.0, implying around 33% before margin, while the draw is offered at 3.62, or close to 28%. Those numbers point to a fixture the bookmakers view as competitive rather than one-sided, with NYCFC holding a modest edge rather than a commanding one. Our model, however, sees value on the away side: Nashville SC to win at 3.0 carries a market-implied confidence of 35% and an estimated value edge of 6.38%. That does not make it a likely outcome, but it suggests the price may be slightly generous relative to the true chance. Read on for the key factors and where this recommendation fits.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Nashville SC to win at 3.0, driven by a 6.38% value edge rather than any expectation they are favourites. At an implied 35% confidence, this is a genuine underdog play that will lose more often than it wins, so treat it as a value-based selection and stake responsibly.
Upcoming MLS fixtures
All MLS tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug 20:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Chicago Fire | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New York City FC | 2.60 | 3.98 | 2.75 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Inter Miami CF v CF Montreal | 1.49 | 5.82 | 6.80 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | D.C. United v Los Angeles FC | 3.50 | 4.01 | 2.08 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union | 3.11 | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Columbus Crew SC v New England Revolution | 1.98 | 4.17 | 4.00 |
| 29 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v Charlotte FC | 2.42 | 4.12 | 3.00 |
| 30 Aug 00:30 | Minnesota United FC v Orlando City SC | 1.87 | 4.58 | 4.06 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?+
Our tip is Nashville SC to win at odds of 2.94, with a 36% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for NYCFC vs Nashville SC?+
New York City FC are the favourites at 2.38, an implied probability of around 42%. Nashville SC are priced at 3.0, roughly 33% implied.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 3.62 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of about 28% before the bookmaker margin.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model identifies value on Nashville SC to win at 3.0, with an estimated edge of 6.38% and a market-implied confidence of 35%. No other selection cleared the value threshold.
When does the match kick off?+
New York City FC vs Nashville SC takes place Fri ยท 23:30 in the MLS.