Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.9% | 7.18 |
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | 9.66 |
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 10.96 |
| 0-1 | 8.3% | 12.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 0.88. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LAN | X | 2 · DYJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.13 | 5.05 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.90 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.85 | 3.20 | 4.90 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.72 | 3.00 | 4.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.67 | 2.90 | 4.60 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.68 | 2.95 | 4.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Lanus host Defensa y Justicia in the Liga Profesional, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Lanus are priced at 1.87 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 53%, marking them as clear home favourites. Defensa y Justicia sit well out at 5.05, or around 20% in implied terms, while the draw is quoted at 3.13, close to a 32% chance. That price structure reflects a contest the bookmaker expects Lanus to shade rather than dominate. Our model steps away from the match-result market and instead looks at goals, recommending Over 1.5 goals at 1.56. That line carries a market-implied confidence of about 61%. It is worth noting the value edge on this pick sits at -4.84%, so it is not flagged as a value play but rather the model's preferred angle on the game.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.56, with a 61% confidence rating.
Lanus vs Defensa y Justicia takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
English 
Español 
Português 
Deutsch 
Français 
Kiswahili 
Hausa 
አማርኛ