Liga Profesional · Tue · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Instituto de Córdoba are favourites at 2.07 (about 48% implied), well ahead of San Lorenzo at 4.12 (about 24%).
The draw is priced at 3.06, implying roughly a 33% chance and keeping a stalemate firmly in play.
Our recommended bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.52, with a market-implied confidence near 62%.
The value edge on the Over 1.5 selection is negative at -5.19%, meaning the odds do not offer an edge over fair value.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 19.5% | 5.14 |
| 1-0 | 18.1% | 5.51 |
| 0-1 | 13.7% | 7.29 |
| 1-1 | 12.8% | 7.82 |
| 2-0 | 8.5% | 11.83 |
| 2-1 | 5.9% | 16.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.93 and 0.70. These six scorelines cover 79% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IDC | X | 2 · SL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.92 | 3.13 | 4.74 |
| 1xBet | 1.94 | 3.10 | 4.68 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.83 | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.90 | 3.04 | 4.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.73 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.86 | 2.90 | 3.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Instituto de Córdoba host San Lorenzo in this Liga Profesional fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about which way it leans. Instituto are the clear favourites at 2.07 with 1xBet, a price that implies roughly a 48% chance of the home win. San Lorenzo are the outsiders at 4.12, translating to about 24% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.06, or close to a 33% chance before margin. That spread points to a contest the bookmakers expect Instituto to edge, though not comfortably enough to remove the away side from the picture. Our model instead focuses on the goals market rather than the result, flagging Over 1.5 goals at 1.52, which carries a market-implied confidence of around 62%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection is negative at -5.19%, so the model likes the outcome more than the price rewards it.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 1.5 goals at 1.52, backing a fixture it expects to produce at least a couple of goals. Confidence sits around 62%, but the negative value edge means you are not getting a price advantage. Treat it as a lean, not a standout, and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.50, with a 39% confidence rating.
Instituto de Córdoba are the favourites at 2.07 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 48% chance. San Lorenzo are the outsiders at 4.12, around 24% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.06 with 1xBet, which implies approximately a 33% chance before the bookmaker margin is removed.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.52 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.19%, so the odds do not offer an advantage over fair value.
Instituto de Córdoba vs San Lorenzo takes place Tue · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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