Liga Profesional · Sun · 22:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Independiente are strong favourites at 1.58, implying around a 63% chance of the home win.
Gimnasia Mendoza are long outsiders at 6.25, priced at roughly 16% implied probability.
The draw at 3.6 sits at about 28% implied, a realistic middle outcome given the price gap.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.21 carries a negative value edge of -8.21%, so it is a lean rather than a market-beating price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.6% | 6.41 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.30 |
| 2-0 | 11.5% | 8.71 |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | 9.43 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.27 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.47 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IND | X | 2 · GM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 3.87 | 6.11 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.57 | 3.70 | 6.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.58 | 3.70 | 5.90 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.50 | 3.45 | 5.60 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.50 | 3.42 | 5.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.50 | 3.50 | 5.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Independiente host Gimnasia Mendoza in the Liga Profesional, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Independiente are priced at 1.58, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 63%, marking them as clear home favourites. Gimnasia Mendoza are the outsiders at 6.25, or about 16% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 3.6, worth around 28%. That spread points to a contest the bookmakers expect Independiente to control, though outsider prices this long always carry upset potential. Our model steps away from the match-result line and looks at the goals market instead, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.21 with Codere (IT). The market prices that outcome at about 42% confidence, and the value edge here is negative at -8.21%, so this is a lean rather than a strong statistical signal. Treat it as one angle on an Independiente-favoured fixture rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.21, backing an open scoreline in a fixture the market tilts toward Independiente. With a negative value edge and only about 42% implied confidence, this is a speculative angle. Stake modestly and keep bankroll discipline in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.18, with a 43% confidence rating.
Independiente are the clear favourites at 1.58, which implies around a 63% chance of the home win. Gimnasia Mendoza are outsiders at 6.25.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Codere (IT), equating to an implied probability of roughly 28%.
Our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.21 as its pick, but the value edge is negative at -8.21%, so it is a lean rather than a clear value bet. No selections cleared the value threshold for this fixture.
Independiente vs Gimnasia Mendoza takes place Sun · 22:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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