Liga Profesional · Mon · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Independiente Rivadavia are the favourites at 2.31 (about 43% implied), but the margin over Racing Club is modest.
Racing Club at 3.36 sit at roughly 30%, only just below the draw's implied chance.
The draw is priced at 3.1, around 32%, reflecting how closely the market rates the two sides.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.44 carries a negative value edge of -5.21%, so it is a lean rather than a strong price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | 7.97 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 0-0 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.45 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.39 and 1.01. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IR | X | 2 · RC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.14 | 3.14 | 3.79 |
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.13 | 3.67 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.17 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.13 | 3.08 | 3.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.15 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.00 | 2.85 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Liga Profesional meeting between Independiente Rivadavia and Racing Club sees the home side installed as the market's preferred pick. At 2.31, Independiente Rivadavia carry an implied probability of roughly 43%, while Racing Club, priced at 3.36, sit closer to 30%. The draw at 3.1 translates to around 32%, underlining how tight this contest is rated once you strip out the bookmaker's margin. So while Independiente Rivadavia are favourites, the gap is far from commanding, and Racing Club are given a realistic path to a result. Our model's attention here turns away from the match result and toward the goals market: Over 2.5 goals at 2.44, with a market-implied confidence of about 39%. That price, however, comes with a negative value edge of -5.21%, meaning it screens as slightly expensive against our estimate rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.44, with implied confidence near 39%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -5.21%, so this is a marginal, higher-risk angle rather than a clear edge. Stake modestly and treat it as a preference, not a strong recommendation.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57, with a 61% confidence rating.
Independiente Rivadavia are favourites at 2.31, implying about a 43% chance. Racing Club are priced at 3.36, roughly 30%.
The draw is available at 3.1, which implies around a 32% probability, making it a live outcome in a closely rated match.
No pick cleared our value threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.44 actually shows a negative edge of -5.21%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Independiente Rivadavia vs Racing Club takes place Mon · 00:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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