Liga Profesional · Sun · 20:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Boca Juniors are strong favourites at 1.72, roughly 58% implied probability, against Gimnasia Mendoza at 5.2, about 19%.
The draw is priced at 3.25, implying near 31%, a fairly typical spread for a clear favourite away from home.
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.49 carries around 61% market-implied confidence, pointing to expectations of a tighter game.
The value edge on the Under is negative at -8.37%, meaning the price offers no clear edge over the market and no value picks cleared our threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | 15.2% | 6.56 |
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.64 |
| 0-0 | 12.4% | 8.06 |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 9.38 |
| 0-2 | 9.4% | 10.68 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.44 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.86 and 1.23. These six scorelines cover 69% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GM | X | 2 · BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsson | 5.40 | 3.30 | 1.78 |
| Nordic Bet | 5.40 | 3.30 | 1.78 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.70 | 3.15 | 1.64 |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.60 | 3.05 | 1.62 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.80 | 3.00 | 1.61 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Boca Juniors travel to face Gimnasia Mendoza in this Liga Profesional fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Boca are priced at 1.72, which implies roughly a 58% chance of victory, marking them as clear favourites on the road. Gimnasia Mendoza sit at the other end of the board at 5.2, translating to about 19% implied probability, while the draw is offered at 3.25, or around 31%. Those numbers paint the picture of a match the bookmakers expect Boca to control without ruling out an upset. Our model, meanwhile, looks past the result and toward the goal total, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 1.49. That price carries a market-implied confidence of around 61%, suggesting the market itself leans toward a lower-scoring contest rather than a goal-heavy one. It is worth noting the value edge here is negative, so this is a lean rather than a standout opportunity.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.5 goals at 1.49, backed by roughly 61% implied confidence but a negative value edge, so treat it as a modest preference rather than a strong play. With no picks clearing our value threshold, stake carefully and only within a sensible bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 61% confidence rating.
Boca Juniors are the favourites at 1.72, which implies roughly a 58% chance of winning. Gimnasia Mendoza are the outsiders at 5.2, around 19% implied probability.
The draw is priced at 3.25 with Codere, implying approximately a 31% probability.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.49 has around 61% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -8.37%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Gimnasia Mendoza vs Boca Juniors takes place Sun · 20:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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