Liga Profesional · Mon · 22:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Estudiantes are strong favourites at 1.69, an implied probability near 59%, well ahead of Newells at 5.8 (around 17%).
The draw is priced at 3.46, implying roughly 29% and sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.4 carries a market-implied confidence of about 40%, so it is far from a lock.
The value edge on the recommended pick is negative (-5.09%), indicating the price does not beat the market consensus.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.2% | 6.58 |
| 2-0 | 12.5% | 7.98 |
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.95 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.85 |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | 10.87 |
| 3-0 | 6.9% | 14.51 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 0.74. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys to win | 6.00 | +3.5% | 17% | 54 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EST | X | 2 · NOB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.56 | 5.54 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 3.57 | 5.33 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.61 | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.66 | 3.50 | 5.45 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.56 | 3.35 | 5.10 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.51 | 3.35 | 5.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Estudiantes host Newells Old Boys in this Liga Profesional fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Estudiantes are priced at 1.69, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 59%, marking them as clear home favourites. Newells, by contrast, sit out at 5.8, or around 17% in probability terms, while the draw is quoted at 3.46, close to 29%. That is a substantial gap between the two sides in the eyes of the bookmakers. Rather than backing the match result, our model leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 2.4 with a market-implied confidence of about 40%. It is worth noting the value edge here is negative at -5.09%, meaning the price does not offer an obvious statistical advantage. Treat this as a preview of how the odds are framed, not a signal of certainty, and stake within your own limits.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 2.4, but with a negative value edge of -5.09% and only about 40% implied confidence, this is a higher-risk pick without a clear pricing advantage. Estudiantes are favoured on the match result, yet the goals angle remains speculative.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.28, with a 42% confidence rating.
Estudiantes are the market favourites at 1.69, an implied probability of about 59%. Newells Old Boys are the outsiders at 5.8, roughly 17%.
The draw is available at 3.46 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 29%.
Our model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 2.4, but the value edge is negative at -5.09%, meaning the price does not offer a clear statistical advantage over the market.
Estudiantes vs Newells Old Boys takes place Mon · 22:00 in the Liga Profesional.
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