La Liga 2 · Sun · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Cádiz are the market favourites at 2.44 (about 41% implied), ahead of Real Valladolid at 3.23 (about 31%).
The draw is priced at 3.13, roughly 32% implied, underlining a reasonably tight overall market.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.5 carries around 39% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -2.44%.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus for this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.3% | 7.51 |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | 7.76 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 0-0 | 10.9% | 9.21 |
| 2-1 | 7.9% | 12.67 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.19 and 1.03. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CC | X | 2 · RVC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.06 | 3.44 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.23 | 3.00 | 3.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.24 | 2.96 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.22 | 3.00 | 3.35 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 2.88 | 3.20 |
| Betsson | 2.28 | 2.95 | 3.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Cádiz CF host Real Valladolid CF in this La Liga 2 clash, and the market leans clearly toward the home side. At best odds of 2.44, Cádiz are priced as favourites, translating to an implied probability of roughly 41%. Real Valladolid sit at 3.23, around 31% in implied terms, while the draw is available at 3.13, close to 32%. Those figures point to a fixture the market considers competitive but tilted toward Cádiz rather than a one-sided affair. Our model's attention falls not on the match result but on the goals market, with Over 2.5 goals at 2.5 the recommended angle. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 39%, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -2.44%. In other words, this is a modest lean on an open scoreline rather than a strong standout play, and it should be weighed with that in mind.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 2.5 goals at 2.5, a lean on an open scoreline rather than the match result. With a negative value edge of -2.44% and modest implied confidence, treat this as a low-conviction pick and stake responsibly within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Celta Fortuna v Andorra CF | 3.95 | 2.97 | 2.42 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Granada CF v Mallorca | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.58 |
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Tenerife v Sporting Gijón | 2.23 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Sabadell FC v Almería | 2.83 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Leganés v CD Eldense | 2.25 | 3.44 | 3.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Albacete v Oviedo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.09 |
| 29 Aug 19:30 | Girona FC v Las Palmas | 1.73 | 3.81 | 4.99 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Andorra CF v SD Eibar | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 59% confidence rating.
Cádiz CF are the market favourites at best odds of 2.44, implying roughly a 41% chance. Real Valladolid are priced at 3.23, around 31% implied.
The draw is available at 3.13 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of about 32%.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.5 actually shows a slightly negative value edge of -2.44%, so it is a low-conviction lean rather than a strong value play.
Cádiz CF vs Real Valladolid CF takes place Sun · 17:00 in the La Liga 2.
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