Liga Profesional · Tue · 00:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Tigre are the favourites at 1.82 (about 55% implied), a clear step ahead of Barracas Central at 5.39 (roughly 19%).
The draw is priced at 3.13, implying near 32%, suggesting the market views a stalemate as a realistic outcome.
The wide gap between the two team prices reflects strong confidence in the home side rather than a close contest.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.62 shows a negative value edge of -5.12%, meaning it prices slightly worse than fair value despite the 59% confidence.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 19.1% | 5.24 |
| 0-0 | 17.1% | 5.83 |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.06 |
| 0-1 | 11.2% | 8.97 |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 9.42 |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | 14.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.11 and 0.65. These six scorelines cover 77% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CTB | X | 2 · BC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 3.13 | 5.29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.85 | 3.15 | 4.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.80 | 3.08 | 5.20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.69 | 2.90 | 4.95 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 2.95 | 4.70 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.75 | 2.95 | 4.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
CA Tigre BA host Barracas Central in this Liga Profesional clash, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Tigre are priced at 1.82 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 55%, marking them as clear home favourites. Barracas Central are the outsiders at 5.39, implying around 19% before any margin adjustment, while the draw sits at 3.13, or about 32%. That spread points to a match the bookmakers expect Tigre to control, though the pricing is far from a formality. Our model's attention here is on the goals market rather than the winner: the recommended angle is Over 1.5 goals at 1.62, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 59%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection reads negative at -5.12%, so it sits below our usual value threshold and should be treated with caution.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 1.5 goals at 1.62, backed by roughly 59% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -5.12% means this is not a strong-value play and sits below threshold. Treat it as a moderate-risk lean rather than a standout selection, and stake within your limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 22:00 | CA Tigre BA v Central Córdoba | 1.70 | 3.61 | 7.30 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Talleres v Rosario Central | 2.86 | 3.05 | 3.03 |
| 25 Aug 00:15 | Lanus v Argentinos Juniors | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 00:15 | Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.84 | 3.57 | 4.70 |
| 29 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Velez Sarsfield BA | 3.00 | 2.84 | 2.99 |
| 29 Aug 20:00 | Rosario Central v Gimnasia La Plata | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.50 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Atlético Huracán v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.65 | 3.50 | 6.67 |
| 29 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Lanus | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.60, with a 60% confidence rating.
CA Tigre BA are the favourites at 1.82 with 1xBet, implying around a 55% chance. Barracas Central are the outsiders at 5.39, roughly 19% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.13 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of about 32% before the bookmaker margin is accounted for.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.62 carries a negative value edge of -5.12%, so it prices slightly worse than fair value and should be approached with caution.
CA Tigre BA vs Barracas Central takes place Tue · 00:15 in the Liga Profesional.
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